Every marketing year comes with a familiar storyline: Prices feel too low to sell. A report is coming. Weather could change. Export demand might improve. Something, somewhere, could spark the next rally.
So, producers wait.
The problem is that markets rarely reward waiting for the perfect rally. More often, they reward preparation and discipline. Markets tend to punish indecision.
The trap of the next rally
Waiting for higher prices feels logical. No one wants to sell at the bottom. But this mindset quietly shifts marketing away from risk management and toward hope management.
When producers delay decisions while waiting for the next rally, they often anchor to a price they wish they could get rather than a price the market is actually offering. That anchor becomes difficult to let go of, even as carrying costs, interest expense and market risk continue to build.
The longer grain or livestock remains unpriced, the more exposure is being carried, regardless of whether it is acknowledged.
Opportunity costs can be expensive
One of the most overlooked aspects of waiting is opportunity cost.
Holding unpriced inventory is not free. Storage costs add up. Interest rates matter. And while the market may eventually rally, it may not rally enough or at the right time to justify the risk taken along the way.
In many cases, a modest rally that could have been captured earlier is missed entirely because the focus was on holding out for just a little more.
Markets do not pay premiums for patience alone. They pay for decisions made at the right time.
Danger: All-or-nothing thinking
Waiting for the next rally often leads to all-or-nothing decisions.
Producers may start to feel like they must either sell everything or sell nothing. That mindset increases emotional pressure and makes it harder to act. When the rally does not arrive, frustration builds. When it does, fear of selling too soon takes over.
Marketing does not have to work this way.
Incremental sales, hedging strategies, or using options can reduce risk while still allowing flexibility. Partial decisions lower emotional stress and prevent producers from becoming stuck waiting for a single perfect moment.
Markets reward positioning
The goal of marketing is not to pick the exact high. It is to manage risk and protect margins.
Producers who perform well over time are rarely the ones who guess every market move correctly. They are the ones who stay positioned, make disciplined decisions and avoid letting emotions dictate strategy.
Waiting for the next rally may feel safe, but it often leaves producers more exposed than they realize.
A better way of thinking
Instead of asking, “What if the market goes higher?” a more productive question is, “What risk am I carrying if it does not?”
Having a plan before rallies and before selloffs allows decisions to be made calmly rather than under pressure. It shifts the focus from reacting to headlines to managing exposure.
Markets offer reasons to wait. The challenge is recognizing when waiting becomes the most expensive decision of all.
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