The US cattle herd remained the smallest since 1951 at the start of the year, in the latest signal that consumer beef prices will remain near records.
There were about 86.2 million cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1, the US Department of Agriculture said in a Friday report. The tally is nearly unchanged from 2025, providing no relief to the ongoing cattle shortage.
The lack of improvement comes as ranchers keep selling animals to slaughter amid high beef demand, rather than retaining the animals to grow their herds. The downsizing — which began years prior when ranchers shrunk their herds due to high production costs and droughts — has sent consumer beef prices to all-time highs.
“We’ve quit ‘bleeding’ cows, but we’re not growing,” said Kyle Bumsted, a commodity broker and branch office manager at Allendale Inc. “Producers have slowed their liquidation, but most folks in operations still aren’t adding cows just yet.”
The situation has stymied the Trump administration’s efforts to bring down beef prices at supermarkets, as affordability becomes a major issue ahead of midterm elections. Measures like exempting Brazilian beef imports from tariffs are expected to boost shipments, but those only go into ground beef and represent a small share of overall US supplies. Meanwhile, shipments of live cattle from Mexico remain halted to prevent the spread of the deadly New World screwworm.
US supplies are set to get even tighter before a recovery is possible, because more animals will have to be held back from the meat supply chain in order for new calves to be bred. The much-watched population of beef replacement heifers — young female cows to be used for breeding — was up 1% from the prior year, signaling that ranchers have yet to begin rebuilding herds in full force.
While cattle prices could be high enough to encourage herd growth, ranchers are still wary that dry weather will impact grazing. More than a third of American cattle were in areas affected by drought, near the highest share since last spring, according to the US Drought Monitor.
The USDA also said that the number of cattle and calves on all US feedlots for the slaughter market as of Jan. 1 was down 3% from the prior year. It estimates that 32.9 million calves were born in the US in 2025, down 2%.
“The argument for expansion is that with calf prices where they are, the carrot has gotten so big that it will entice ranchers to retain females to grow their herds,” said Don Close, a senior animal protein analyst at Terrain Ag. “The counter-argument is that with calf prices as high as they are, it’s hard for that farmer to give up that price that’s being offered to keep that heifer for another two years before he’s able to get any economic return from her.”
Live cattle futures traded in Chicago have gained 2.2% this month and are up about 17% over the past year.
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