By Pyotr Kozlov
Ukraine’s agricultural shipments could fall by more than half this season after Russian attacks disrupted Black Sea ports, threatening the country’s biggest source of export revenue.
The country may export about 29.6 million tons of agricultural products in the 2026-27 marketing year, down 54% from an earlier estimate of 64.4 million tons, according to Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry. Wheat exports could plunge 53% to 8.3 million tons from a previous forecast.
Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain shippers, with the farm sector generating more than half of the country’s export revenue last year. Russian attacks on the port of Odesa, which usually handles about 90% of its grain shipments, are choking off those flows, while alternative routes via the Danube are limited by a drought that’s left water levels in the river at record lows.
The export bottleneck is creating pressure as the new harvest fills storage facilities and weighs on domestic prices. Ukraine’s roughly 59 million tons of grain storage capacity could be full by early November, with a deficit of about 11 million tons by the end of autumn.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and plans further measures to increase storage capacity. Ukraine has also asked the European Commission for €220 million ($253 million) in grants to subsidize interest on loans to small and medium-sized farmers.
In a bid to develop alternative outlets, Kyiv and Bucharest have agreed to expand shipments through Romania’s Constanta port, while Ukraine’s state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia is looking for more transit routes.
Grain is already being redirected through Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, but those can’t come close to fully replacing Odesa’s export capacity.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture also expects a significant decline in Ukraine’s grain shipments. The USDA’s official estimate for wheat exports is 14.5 million tons, but its Foreign Agricultural Service expects shipments of just 10.8 million tons. Its forecast for corn exports is 14 million tons, 39% below the official estimate.
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