Regardless of whether USDA’s numbers dropkick or kickstart grain markets with each report drop, farmers focused on their own yields and breakeven prices are more likely to find profit opportunity, says DuWayne Bosse, a South Dakota farmer who owns Bolt Marketing.
“My goal is to have clients protected or use risk management so they kind of don't care what the report says," Bosse explains on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, which was recorded before today’s release of USDA’s August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
The timing is appropriate for Bosse to warn against getting caught up in what he calls “the great yield debate,” a guessing game centered on USDA reports.
Instead, he recommends farmers focus on their own operations and market based on realistic yield expectations. Use the number you’re fertilizing for, he tells farmers – not conservative estimates.
The market for many years expected lower prices coming into and during harvest. And 2026 is no exception. Though the early 2000s may have spoiled grain marketers and their clients.
“We went through a nice bullish cycle where it seems like you could just sell everything at harvest and you're getting $6 for corn, and we were in the teens on beans. That's not there right now. In these last four years it's been more like what to me ag usually is: you're profitable only once or twice a year and when you get to those points you've got to take advantage of that,” Bosse says. The way a farmer can take advantage of rallies is to know what price is profitable for his crop. To do that, Bosse says, know your breakeven.
Given that grain markets appear to be in that downward slide into harvest, Bosse understands that some farmers might simply step back from sales. However, he cautions against storage paralysis. Even in a year like 2026 when greater price opportunity seems likely in Q4 of this year or Q1 2027, Bosse doesn’t recommend simply “storing and ignoring.”
“Just because a broker says he's bullish doesn't mean you shouldn't sell," Bosse says, noting he’s in the bullish corral. Consider, he suggests, making sales, then buying futures or call options to retain price upside opportunity. Pay attention to the cost of storage and the farm business’ cash flow needs.
Ultimately, Bosse says, focus on forward movement. “You don't have to hit a home run,” he says. “Just get singles.”
To hear more of Bosse’s tips on navigating market volatility and crop report inconsistency, watch Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.