Corn futures and Nvidia may seem unlikely soulmates. Sure, the AI-darling is worth $5.5 trillion, 10 times more than the total value of world grain supplies. But the 25% rally in corn in July and August tops even the recent surge by the tech stock.
And, while Wall Street gurus disagree on the future of the chip giant, corn also could be at a make-or-break moment. The grain market is overbought according to momentum indicators. That signal doesn’t mean futures must retreat, but it does suggest a steady diet of bullish news may be needed to keep the party going.
Corn’s latest strength piggybacked onto gains by wheat, given a leg up by sources suggesting corn yields could be significantly lower than reported by USDA’s first surveys of farmers and their fields. The 180.7 bushels per acre that USDA printed Aug. 12 was already down from the expected normal of 183 bpa.
But lower production isn’t a slam-dunk foregone conclusion. Midwest weather data and other methods I use to project the size of the crop offer mixed results — including normal yields. Here’s what I’m seeing.
Will corn yield drop?
One thing appears likely: Corn yields are down from the 186.5-bpa record achieved in 2025. The question is by how much?
Vegetation Health Indexes are off 5% from the strong showing of 2025 but ticked above average in the latest week. This translates into yields that could be in line with USDA’s August estimate.
If correct, shrinking the nation’s 2 billion-bushel surplus depends on demand. Drought in Europe and the former Soviet Union is reducing export flows out of the Black Sea, while also forcing more buyers there to turn to supplies from abroad — notably the U.S.
Some bulls hope China also will draw U.S. originations, though no new- or old-crop commitments are on the books yet as the 2025-26 marketing year closes.
If usage by livestock feeders and ethanol plants runs in line with USDA’s forecasts, corn futures could average $4.40 for the 2026 crop, with the top third selling range for rallies from $5 to $5.40.
December corn hit the top end of that range last week, ramping up risk. Other metrics for monitoring crop health agree with that assessment.
The latest Crop Progress report dropped the percentage of cornfields rated good or excellent 4% to 57%, but that still suggested yields of 181.6 bpa. While 27% of the crop was dry, according to the latest Drought Monitor, that was up from only 5% from last year.
July temperatures in key Midwest states were modestly warmer than normal, and rainfall was decidedly below average. But timely planting and lack of stress in June don’t point to real problems.
Uncertainty in soybean exports
Soybean data was solid as the key month of August closed, pointing to yields better than the 52.7 bpa USDA reported. Soybeans rallied on the backs of the moves in wheat and corn, buoyed by regular sales to China reported under the agency’s daily wire for large purchases.
China has booked around 30% of estimated 2025 commitments already, but traders are focused on how the Washington summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will go down in a few weeks. Still unknown is how sanctions on Iranian trading partners will affect the purchases of its biggest buyer — Beijing.
My price forecasts reflect that uncertainty. Under a bullish scenario, cash prices could average $13, with futures rallies topping $15. The more likely path projects a selling range between $12.35 and $13.30, levels the board hit last week.
But rather than trying to predict prices in any crop, focus first on profit — how much you need and how much you can risk.