Ted Seifried is getting excited about the corn market: So much so that the Zaner Ag Hedge chief market strategist happily donned his ‘corn hat’ as he offered up kernels of market wisdom in San Antonio at the 2026 Commodity Classic.
Seifried joined University of Minnesota grain market economist Ed Usset to talk markets before 700 farmers in a session sponsored by Farm Progress, Farm Futures and Channel Seed. Both analysts laid out key price-impacting factors to watch for both corn and soybean farmers.
One reason for optimism lies in USDA’s most recent corn balance sheet, which shows lower than expected production in 2026 combined with robust demand.
“They are looking at a significant decline in corn acres after last year’s 98.8 million acres,” he said. “They are looking at trend yields of 183, which is a pullback from the high yields of 186.5 last year.”
USDA also expects corn ending stocks to decline, offering more friendly outlook compared to the current market year carryover. Exports are the bright spot in the corn balance sheet. In fact, the United States is seeing brisk corn export sales at a time when exports aren’t usually that high, a positive sign for the future.
“We’ve been exporting at a highly elevated level for corn,” said Seifried. “As we get into our typical export window for corn (March and April) the question is, will it continue to run at this hot level?”
Will China buy corn?
China may also help. China has not purchased U.S. corn in recent years, but their domestic prices started spiking last fall. The surge in higher domestic prices spurred China to book 2.5 million metric tons of sorghum early in 2026, triple the amount purchased in 2025.
Seifried speculated that China could announce a corn purchase before the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping next month. “This time it could be corn and not soybeans,” Seifried said. “Watch out for that.”
While Brazil remains a stiff competitor in the soybean export market, the country’s impact on corn exports has been muted by growing domestic demand. Brazil has long had a robust ethanol industry fed by sugarcane, but ethanol production showed explosive growth over the past 10 years, gobbling up much of the country’s corn crop.
“That is great because it’s keeping corn off the export market,” Seifried said.
Fund positions — the buying and selling activity of large-scale speculative investors such as hedge funds and managed money accounts — can have a dramatic impact on markets, he explained. The funds were mildly bearish on corn but have been buying slowly, based on the idea China may buy U.S. corn.
Marketing strategies
Even with these positive trends, corn is still a long way from recovering to the profitable levels of years past. In the short term, Seifried suggests a corn re-ownership strategy — buy the July corn 460 call, sell the 520 call, paying 11 cents (plus fees).
“I don’t see corn trading much over $5.20 unless there is an absolute weather disaster,” he said. “Watch basis as a clue to future new crop prices. We will see a recovery in basis before we see a corn rally.”
Usset says the odds are high that corn and soybean prices will rally this spring, but it doesn’t mean farmers should ignore pricing opportunities for new crop now.
“December corn is trading at $4.65, which is not a great price,” he said. “I’m not thrilled about new crop at that price, but remember, we have been below $4 corn the past few years. Now may be a good time to consider pricing some new crop corn and soybeans.”
Usset encouraged farmers who have corn in storage to consider selling by May or June. His data, which goes back 36 years, shows farmers who hold corn in storage into July or August tend to lose money compared to those who sell in May or June.
“It’s not a sin to have an empty bin,” Usset said.
Brazil’s juggernaut continues
Brazil is, technically, a developing country, except when it comes to agriculture, said Seifried, who had just returned from a visit to South America. Driven by low costs and high China demand, the country last year added upwards of 2.5 million soybean acres as part of its decades-long expansion.
“They know what they are doing,” he said, “and they are very advanced.”
Brazil is also making inroads solving its greatest disadvantage — transportation infrastructure. For example, yearly export tonnage at Santos Port increased by 94% between 2010 and 2025.
“There are no signs of them slowing down,” Seifried added. “Brazil has seen massive increases in production because they have a friend in China. They know China wants to work with them as much as possible.”
That won’t help prices is the USDA soybean balance sheet, which shows expected 2026 U.S. acreage at 85 million compared to 81.2 million acres last year. USDA expects yields to stay at 53 bushels per acre.
Greater production could be soaked up by increased domestic demand, said Usset. “We’ve had a big increase in soybean crush capacity driven by the increased demand in renewable fuel,” he said. “Sustainable Aviation Fuel and renewable diesel is good, but it’s not going to replace our export market quickly.”
Selling soybeans to China would also help prices, added Seifried.
“We do have a verbally agreed deal with China for them to buy, but if we don’t see that happen that leaves our carryover number vulnerable,” he added.
Current price projections of $10.30 per bu. are slightly higher than $10.20 per bushel in 2025, but it’s nothing to write home about.
“Basically, USDA is seeing a very similar year this year compared to last year,” he said.
What’s not getting enough attention is China’s economy. It’s not running nearly as hot as it was 20 years ago when GDP was spiking. That led to millions of Chinese improving diets through meat, which requires feed such as soybean meal.
Tariffs and trade restrictions put a slight dent in the Chinese economy. While its industrial sector is still strong, the country’s property sector struggles, and domestic demand is weaker.
“The growth of demand from China just may not be what it was in the past,” Seifried added.
Funds bulled up about a potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping last fall.
“We had a government shutdown at the time, so we weren’t clear about what was happening, but with trading we have a saying, ‘Buy the rumor and sell the fact,’ and that’s what the funds did,” said Seifried. “Then when we got a tweet that said China could buy another 8 million tons, we saw the funds buying again."
“So, recent soybean rallies we’ve had toward October highs might be an opportunity for producers to make some sales.”
Seifried suggested trying a synthetic put strategy in soybeans — Sell July futures at $11.63½ and buy a July $12.20 call at 19 cents (plus fees).
“That will protect the bottom in case we get a rally.”