Soybean futures surged higher in recent weeks, thanks to weather concerns and ideas that the U.S. crop may be smaller than initially expected. Demand has been resilient as well. The question is: Can the positive momentum continue through September?
What’s happened
What a summer for soybean futures! First, we saw a price sell-off during June on ideas of a large U.S. crop. This notion was quickly negated during July, thanks to a drought in Europe and a flash drought in the U.S. November 2026 soybean futures rallied over $1 during that time frame, reaching as high as the $12.50 price area. Early August saw a 75-cent pullback, with a late August price rally over $1 again as the notion of record U.S. soybean yield came under doubt.
With November 2026 soybean futures now trading above $13 as of this writing, traders are wondering if the rally will continue in September. The month could be a significant turning point for soybean prices — either higher or lower, as many pieces of fundamental information become more available.
From a marketing perspective
Here are the four fundamentals to monitor this month:
1. Weather. The first item to monitor for soybeans during September is weather. Hot and dry weather continues to grip much of the Midwest. We are in the final critical window for pod filling. Will high temperatures zap yield potential for soybeans? Chatter about “sudden death” in some portions of the Midwest leads to a question about how that disease might affect the soybean crop and, ultimately, yield. Will harvest be able to begin quickly due to warmer and dryer conditions?
2. USDA data. Next is the Sept. 11 USDA report. This is a regular monthly supply-and-demand report from USDA, and many aspects of the report could potentially be updated.
Its most recent report in August had soybean yield marked at 52.7 bushels per acre. Ultimately, where will USDA place yield for corn and soybeans on the upcoming Sept. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report?
Soybean domestic demand is phenomenal, thanks to crush demand for biofuel. Soybeans used for crush are slated at 2.78 billion bushels, up from 2.655 billion last year. What still lies in question is where soybean exports will ultimately fall. Right now, USDA has soybean exports for the 2026-27 crop year pegged at 1.66 billion bushels. Keep in mind, that number assumes the 25 million metric tons that China is said to purchase from the United States this year.
3. Managed money. The third item to monitor is the position of managed money fund traders. For the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Aug. 28 Commitment of Traders report, managed money fund investors held a net-long soybean futures position of 198,254 contracts (as of end of business on Aug. 25). Traders now estimate that managed money funds may be net long closer to 225,000, nearing the record net long of 254,000 contracts. Speculative length could become a market factor in the coming weeks if funds continue to pile in, raising the risk of swift long liquidation if the market gets some bearish news, which could send prices dramatically lower.
4. China buying. The last to monitor is weekly export sales to China and the upcoming expected meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China in Washington on Sept. 24. So far it is estimated that China has purchased 8 MMT of soybeans, out of the expected 25 MMT. Will the Chinese continue to buy U.S. soybeans? Will there be any last-minute drama ahead of the meeting that makes traders feel that China will ease off of its recent buying spree?
Prepare yourself
There could be the potential for price volatility for soybean futures during September. Make sure you stay on top of things to help manage risk and capture potential pricing opportunities
Monitoring and balancing these four important fundamentals during September will help you manage marketing opportunities and minimize market risks.
Revisit these fundamentals often. Fundamental news continues to shift weekly. Be ready to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim, so be confident and ready.
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