The 2025-26 crop year for corn and soybeans officially wrapped up on the last day of August. It was a year full of surprises for producers, and now is a good time to pause, look back and pull out the lessons that will shape a disciplined risk management strategy heading into 2026-27:
Here are five lessons this year taught us:
1. Rallies can happen at any time. Typically, the corn market drifts sideways to lower as the crop year winds down and harvest approaches. Not this year. December 2026 corn futures actually posted a summer low, then turned around and hit their high for the year late in August — a sharp contrast to 2025, when December futures peaked in February.
The takeaway: Don’t assume the calendar dictates market direction. A flexible marketing plan that can respond to rallies whenever they show up is essential.
2. Keep an eye on South America. A year ago, USDA’s early forecast for 2025-26 Argentinean corn production and exports sat at 53 million metric tons and 37 MMT, respectively. Thanks to an excellent growing season, those numbers have since climbed to record levels of 63 MMT and 45 MMT, respectively.
That shift matters. Argentina, alongside Brazil, is now positioned to compete hard with the U.S. for world export business in the months ahead. South American production and export trends deserve a permanent spot on every producer’s watch list.
3. React to how the market responds to a report, not just the numbers themselves. USDA’s June 30 Acreage report was widely expected to show fewer U.S. corn acres than the March estimate. When the report landed showing acreage essentially unchanged, the knee-jerk read might have been “no big deal.” Instead, December corn futures closed 6 cents higher that day and have since climbed more than $1.
The lesson here isn’t about the raw number in the report. It’s about watching how the market actually digests that number and being ready to act on the market’s reaction rather than your own initial read of the data.
4. Change can happen fast. On Aug. 11, December corn futures settled near $4.61, and plenty of market watchers expected prices to keep sliding into harvest. Then USDA’s Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report came in with a lower-than-expected yield estimate, and December futures rallied more than 20 cents almost immediately. Ongoing support tied to geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region has added further strength since.
Producers who had a disciplined risk management strategy already in place were ready to manage that volatility. Those who didn’t were left reacting after the fact.
5. Use tools that protect the downside and make room for upside. Maybe the biggest lesson of the year: December 2026 corn futures put in a summer low well ahead of the 2026 harvest. That’s a strong reminder that getting bushels protected before harvest, using risk management tools that guard against falling prices while still leaving the door open for further gains, is central to a successful marketing program.
Putting it into practice for 2026-27
Markets rarely move in a straight line, and this past year proved it. Heading into the new crop year, the through-line across all five lessons is the same: Build a marketing plan flexible enough to handle surprises, and lean on risk management tools that let you sleep at night no matter which direction the market turns next.