Thanks in large part to the return of China, the great U.S. soybean export market rebound is off and running in the new 2026-27 marketing year.
Now comes the hard part: climbing out of the big hole dug by President Donald Trump’s 2025 trade war and reclaiming at least some of U.S. farmers’ lost share of the global soybean export market.
As of late August, U.S. new-crop soybean sales commitments for 2026-27 delivery totaled nearly 16.3 million metric tons (598.2 million bushels), more than double the total over the same period last year, when China was out of the U.S. market.
The jump in export commitments was driven by China, which started actively snapping up new-crop U.S. soybeans in late July. As of Aug. 27, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 7.76 MMT (285.1 million bushels).
China’s buying comes as a welcome development for U.S. farmers, and it contributed to a steep early September rally that sent November soybean futures to 2½-year highs above $13 per bushel.
The sustainability of China’s buying, and the market’s strength, are critical questions for U.S. farmers to monitor in the months ahead, especially with a potentially record U.S. crop in the pipeline.
China’s purchase commitments to date represent about 31% of a 25 MMT full-year purchase target that arose from a trade truce struck with the U.S. last fall. Prior to that, China didn’t buy U.S. beans, turning instead to Brazil for about six months as it waged a protracted trade war with the Trump administration.
If China continues its recent buying pace — and that’s a big “if” — it could reach the 25 MMT threshold by the end of 2026 or early 2027. That’s a positive step. But it won’t make U.S. soybean farmers entirely whole.
The U.S. share of global soybean exports shrank to 22% last year from around 40% a decade earlier. For years, soybeans were U.S. agriculture’s most valuable export by a wide margin. The U.S. exported soybeans valued at $28.5 billion a year on average from 2021-24, based on Census Bureau data. In 2025, exports nosedived 34% to $16.2 billion.
Good news for soybeans
To be sure, China’s return can be viewed as good news for farmers, helping soybean exports rebound from a 13-year low in 2025-26. Additionally, domestic crushers have stepped in to soak up an increasing share of the country’s supply as they aim to meet sharply higher federal biofuels mandates. Crushing in 2026-27 is projected at a record for the sixth year in a row, based on USDA data.
Even so, China and another big soybean player, Brazil, are essential to the direction of the soybean market and farmers’ fortunes in 2027. Another potential piece of “good” news: Brazil appears to be pulling back on its rapid planting expansion of the past two decades, with planted acres this year expected to be flat to up fractionally. The not-so-good news: Brazil is still going to produce a huge crop, barring a weather disaster.
As another fall harvest nears, it all adds up to a cast of familiar characters and plot points for farmers to keep a close eye on. And Brazil’s outsized role — the country accounted for over 60% of global soybean exports last year — isn’t going anywhere.
Brazilian soybean farmers are hitting “pause” on soybean planting growth as margins get squeezed, Matthew Kruse, president of Commstock Investments, said during a panel discussion at the 2026 Farm Progress Show. But longer term, he said Brazil’s crop sector “still has tremendous growth potential ahead. Brazil is going to continue to grow and be a force.”