USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is not typically one of the more anticipated submissions of the year, but 2026 continues to be anything but typical.
That’s because hot, dry conditions through late summer have caused plenty of speculation that the agency would significantly cut corn yield estimates, from August’s mark of 180.7 bushels per acre down to 178.2 bpa. Complicating the matter was the unusually large spread of trade guesses, which ranged between 173.2 bpa and 182.9 bpa.
Ultimately, USDA’s official mark was very close to that average, at 178.5 bpa. Traders still reacted positively to that reduction, pushing prices moderately higher immediately following WASDE’s release. Soybeans incurred double-digit cuts, meantime, with winter wheat prices also shifting moderately lower late Friday morning.
Corn
As mentioned above, USDA lowered corn yields from 180.7 bpa in August down to 178.5 bpa — a hair above the average trade guess of 178.2 bpa. Also on the supply side, production estimates eroded 213 million bushels to a new projection of 15.8 billion bushels. USDA noted the 2.2-bushel reduction in yield as well as a fractional decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million acres.
On the demand side, USDA lowered feed and residual use by 150 million bushels to 6 million bushels. Exports held steady, at 3.3 billion bushels. All told, ending stocks eased 86 million bushels lower to 1.567 billion bushels, with trade estimates coming in below that at 1.528 billion bushels. USDA also raised the season-average farm price by 30 cents per bushel to $4.80.
In South America, USDA noted no changes to 2026-27 corn production estimates, which remained at 2.165 billion bushels in Argentina and 5.472 billion bushels in Brazil. World ending stocks fell from 274.66 million metric tons in August down to 272.10 MMT, with trade estimates assuming a larger reduction to 271.59 MMT.
Soybeans
Traders struggled to find much bullish data to digest for soybeans in today’s WASDE report, meantime. Yields inched 0.1 bpa higher to 52.8 bpa, with the trade expecting to see a modest decline to 52.5 bpa. USDA also slightly raised its production estimates by 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels. That puts 2026 production potential very near the highest on record.
On the demand side, soy crushing estimates held steady, while the export forecast trended 25 million bushels higher to 1.69 billion. Ending stocks creeped 10 million bushels lower to 310 million bushels.
The season-average price forecast tracked 60 cents higher from August, reaching $12.00 per bushel. Soymeal prices increased $30 per short ton to $340, with soyoil prices remaining unchanged at 70 cents per pound.
In South America, USDA kept its estimates unchanged in Argentina and Brazil, leaving those projections at 1.837 billion bushels and 6.834 billion bushels. It’s worth noting that Brazil’s expected production would once again reach record levels, if realized.
Globally, ending stocks saw fractional declines from 124.21 MMT in August down to 124.02 MMT. Analysts were expecting to see a larger decline to around 123.06 MMT, meantime.
Wheat
“All of the aggregate supply and use categories for 2026-27 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month,” according to USDA’s report. However, the agency did note some minor offsetting by-class changes for exports, with increases to white wheat offsetting decreases to hard red winter and hard red spring. Ending stocks for 2026-27 didn’t budge, at 717 million bushels. USDA upped its season-average farm price by 20 cents per bushel to $6.40, a change attributed to prices reported already and expectations for futures and cash prices throughout the remainder of the current marketing year.
Globally, world ending stocks trended from 273.25 MMT in August all the way up to 276.29 MMT. That was well above the average trade estimate of 273.46 MMT but still well below year-ago volumes of 280.60 MMT.
