As we head to harvest and look back on 2026, this has been a year of volatility in the grain markets and variability in weather and crop conditions across most of the Midwest. 2026 is certainly a year that proved patience is a virtue.
Let’s revisit the top issues:
Beginning yield. We started the year with USDA confirming what many thought: Last year’s crop was a record. USDA penciled in the 2025 national corn yield at 186.5 bushels per acre, well above the previous national record.
Soybeans? Same story, with USDA’s January World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report showing U.S. soybean yield at 53 bpa for the 2025 crop year. Both were well above the average trade estimate, which sent prices edging lower through the first two months of 2026.
South America. South America’s crop remained strong through harvest, adding some near-term pressure early in the year. However, the tide began to turn during the last week of February when the conflict between the U.S. and Iran began to escalate.
Oil. WTI and Brent crude oil traded sharply higher in the weeks and months that followed and, as of this writing, remain higher than pre-conflict levels — bringing the grain complex up with them.
Big questions about yield, demand
Where do we go from here? That remains the question. The markets are placing their attention on what the national corn and soybean yields will be. Grain markets look to turn the tables from previous years, with corn futures now carrying a $5 handle and soybeans a $13 handle.
Corn demand remains strong, with exports continuing to run at record pace as the world corn balance sheet stays tight.
Also, Managed money continues to buy the grain complex over the last couple of weeks and looks to be near record-long in both corn and soybeans, according to a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report.
Still a corn flip
Regardless, a case can be made for both the bulls and the bears in the weeks and months ahead, as combines get rolling across the Midwest, yield reports start coming in and South America begins planting their crops. Watch for these factors:
- chance of a “Super El Niño” materializing this winter
- small-refinery exemptions and EPA decisions that impact demand
- buying by China
Will China include corn as part of its agreement to spend $17 billion on U.S. agriculture products? What about wheat? The nation already started buying U.S. soybeans. China agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons, and as of Friday, it is about 36% complete toward matching the target.
I’m hopeful we can finally turn the corner from the last couple of years of lower commodity prices if the right cards continue to fall. But it’s still just as important to manage risk accordingly. Wishing everyone a safe and happy harvest!
Robson can be reached ERobson@agmarket.net or 309-454-4145. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment.