U.S. corn exports continue to show exceptional strength as we move deeper into the 2025-26 marketing year. The latest export inspections for the week ending Feb. 19 reported 78.9 million bushels of corn inspected for export — well above the prior week’s 59.2 mbu, and much stronger than the 45.9 mbu from a year earlier. Year‑to‑date inspections now total 1.486 billion bushels compared with 1.020 bbu last year, underscoring a fundamentally stronger export pace.
Recent export sales data also highlight the impressive start for the current export program. In the week ended Feb. 12, corn net sales reached 57.9 mbu, above the implied weekly 29.3 mbu needed to meet the USDA’s projection for the current marketing year. Unshipped sales stand at 1.020 bbu, compared with 885 million at this point last year. These combined metrics — robust shipments and resilient sales — explain why the USDA raised its 2025-26 export forecast by 100 mbu to a record 3.30 bbu in the February WASDE report.
But even with a record export forecast, the remainder of the export program may face potential risks. As we move into the second part of the marketing year, and new corn crop becomes available, several factors could still weaken U.S. export momentum, especially as Argentina and Brazil harvest their corn crop and compete with lower prices in the international market.
Exports from Ukraine: An uncertain threat
During the first part of the 2025-26 marketing year, Ukraine corn exports were held back by infrastructure damage and slow harvest completion, as well as grain quality (excessive moisture) and logistical issues. Ukraine’s cumulative corn exports for the September-January period totaled about 7.9 MMT, roughly 21% below last season’s pace, according to UkrAgroConsult/Bloomberg data.
But that weakness may not persist indefinitely. Industry sources noted that January 2026 shipments climbed to roughly 2.8 million metric tons, the strongest monthly figure since June 2024, as port flows temporarily improved. This aligns with USDA’s February WASDE, which still expects 22 MMT of Ukrainian corn exports (down 1 MMT from the previous month, and versus 20 MMT last year) on a 29 MMT crop, implying a stronger shipping program later in the season if logistics hold.
Since the European Union is the world’s largest importer of Ukrainian corn, each improvement in Ukraine’s crop and logistics allows Europe to reduce U.S. purchases. This sensitivity is already visible in EU import patterns, where tight early‑season supplies supported U.S. sales. But renewed Ukrainian availability may restrict U.S. advantages in the coming months.
Argentina could boost corn exports
Argentina’s mix of policy incentives and crop potential can tighten competition. The size of Argentina’s 2025-26 corn crop remains a wildcard as planting just finished in the country. While the USDA expects a 53 MMT crop, several private analysts, including the Rosario Grain Exchange, in published scenarios suggest upper‑50s to low‑60s MMT, when early‑season conditions were favorable. If realized, higher-than-expected corn production in Argentina would increase the country’s exports later this year and next year.
At the same time, export‑tax policy has turned decisively more favorable for Argentina’s exports of various ag commodities. In July 2025, Argentina permanently reduced export duties, including cutting export tariffs on corn from 12% to 9.5%. Later, in December 2025, another round of reductions lowered tariffs to 8.5%. These changes, described as durable through the current administration, meaningfully increase producer incentives to sell and improve the competitiveness of Argentine prices relative to U.S. prices.
Access to China also expanded. China officially opened its market to Argentine corn in 2023 — even though the country shortly after significantly reduced its imports of various grains. Earlier, in May 2025, the two countries also signed a $900 million letter of intent for soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, signaling a broader commercial relationship and a possible shift away from U.S. suppliers.
The combination of lower export tariffs, improved crop potential, relatively low prices, and market expansion makes Argentina more competitive in the international market and could pressure U.S. corn exports through the end of the 2025-26 marketing year and the beginning of the 2026-27 marketing year.
Brazil big crop potential meets big domestic demand
Conab and USDA estimates consistently emphasize the dominance of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil’s total production, and the importance of the crop in the country’s exports. According to Conab, as of Feb. 21, 2026, planting progress reached 46.7% in the country, which is behind the five-year average of 53.2% for this period. A delay in planting the safrinha corn crop in several regions exposes late‑seeded fields to higher yield risks such as possible early dry conditions in the Central-West and frost risk in the southern areas.
Still, even in years with excellent safrinha corn yield, Brazil’s exportable surplus has been increasingly constrained by domestic consumption. The structural shift is clearest in ethanol policy. In June 2025, Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council approved the increase of the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30), effective Aug. 1, 2025. This policy accelerates demand for corn‑based ethanol, an industry with significantly expanded output.
Multiple industry analyses show Brazil’s corn ethanol usage growing from nearly 6 MMT in 2019-20 to roughly 18 MMT in 2023/24, with credible outlooks toward the mid‑20s MMT range by 2025-26. At the same time, Brazil remains the world’s largest beef exporter, and a major poultry and pork exporter — sectors that require massive corn‑based feed inputs.
The USDA projects Brazil’s total domestic corn consumption at 96.50 MMT in 2025-26, a 37% increase compared to the 70.50 MMT figure in 2020-21. This strong and steady increase in domestic consumption may limit the quantity of corn available for exports —even in high‑production years.
As a result, a large Brazilian crop does not necessarily mean aggressive exports. If domestic ethanol producers and the livestock sector bid heavily for corn, Brazil’s export surplus tightens, helping the U.S. retain later‑season global share.
So, what’s the U.S. outlook?
The U.S. corn export program is off to one of its strongest starts in years, but international competitiveness remains strong, and the main exporters are still potential threats during the remainder of the current marketing year and for the new crop. Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil each have the potential to shift global trade flows — but none of them, at least today, look strong enough to derail the U.S. outlook on their own.