President Donald Trump said he is working on a “massive deal” to purchase potash, a key fertilizer component, from Belarus. It appears to be his latest salvo in an increasingly bitter trade war with Canada.
“The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our farmers and ranchers,” Trump said in a Sept. 21 social media post.
The president offered no details on how potash shipped halfway across the globe would be cheaper than supply from America’s northern neighbor.
While fertilizer prices have skyrocketed since the start of the Iran conflict, potash has not been nearly as impacted as other fertilizer components. That’s because most Middle Eastern potash exports originate from Israel and Jordan, which don’t rely on the Strait of Hormuz to reach the global market.
According to data from The Fertilizer Institute, Canada accounts for nearly 90% of all U.S. potash imports. That supply is between 80% and 86% of the potash consumed in the U.S.
Andy Hemphill, a senior markets editor for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, said it’s highly unlikely Belarus could replace Canada’s potash supply any time soon. He suspects Trump’s public statement is a political move designed to demonstrate a willingness by the U.S. to extend negotiations with Belarus.
Currently, the U.S. only produces around 400,000 metric tons of potash each year. Conversely, Canada exports more than 12 million metric tons to the U.S.
In 2025, Belarus produced 6 million metric tons of potash. Much of that goes to China.
“The amount that they [the U.S.] could import from Belarus currently is minimal, absolutely minimal,” Hemphill sad. “It’s OK, the president saying on True Social that he could work out a deal, but there’s real skepticism among potash players when it comes to this sort of agreement.”
The skepticism seems to be shared by Belarus itself. Hours after Trump posted his Truth Social announcement, Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexsandr Lukashenko wrote on a government website that his nation cannot supply large potash volumes because its output is already contracted for this year.
“Even if we wanted to supply to other Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted,” Lukashenko added.
Logistical concerns
While Belarus could potentially ramp up potash production at some point, getting product to the U.S. would present a whole host of other issues. Belarus is a landlocked nation. Western sanctions have prohibited the country from exporting potash through Lithuania’s Baltic Sea port, Klaipeda, since 2022. With its other European neighbors also enforcing sanctions, Belarus exports much of its potash to China via rail. Product earmarked for the international market is exported through Russian ports.
“I’m not saying it’s not possible in the long term to increase the percentage of potash coming from Belarus,” Hemphill said. “There’s just so many hurdles that need to be jumped for that to happen.”