In an agricultural market buffeted by wild weather and stormy global politics, traditional economic cycles aren’t in play. Rather than wait out the historically expected algorithm, CoBank economist Jacqui Fatka’s keynote message at the opening of the 2026 Women in Agribusiness Summit on Sept. 22 was this: U.S. agriculture is not in a repeat of the 1980s. In fact, the industry seemingly is not repeating anything.
“The world is changing,” Fatka said. “A lot of that is due to some of the world demographics, our trade policy, but there’s also some structural and cyclical changes that are going on as well.”
Fatka urged the 700 or so women in the audience, representing a broad swath of industry players across the supply chain, to be aware of compressed margins for everybody from farmers to suppliers. Pay attention to trade and demographic shifts that are altering buying patterns, and support long-term demand opportunity in biofuels.
The two areas of greatest concern that could strongly push farm financials are weather and government payments.
Super El Niño. Fatka pointed to a map of potential impacts with heavy rain or severe drought that could drastically decrease crop production in several countries. In the U.S., Fatka sees the potential for 20% fewer harvestable days this year. For Brazil, the greatest impact is expected during planting of the safrinha, or second-crop corn.
The upside? Decreased corn production could significantly push prices. At a time when the market is contemplating $6 a bushel, Fatka sees a chance for a dollar higher. Tighter stocks-to-demand ratios historically mean higher prices, and a ratio below 10% in corn is a trigger.
“We’re very close to that 10% line, which if you think about what happens at 10%, we usually start rationing supplies and prices start to increase,” Fatka said.
The last USDA report showed that ratio close to 9%. That’s when Fatka suggested $7 corn could possibly, maybe, have a chance. However, she issued an edict to her audience: “Now nobody in the room, including my media friends — do not say Jacqui Fatka said we would have $7 corn.” She just hinted.
Government payments. Payments to farmers, particularly under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, could account for about 30% of farm income in 2026. “Government aid is taking on an elevated role, and that is trickling through, in sometimes a different way, throughout the supply chain,” Fatka said.
An essential data point in that is how government payments increase farmland lease prices. Fatka said for every $1 in commodity payments, lease prices increase by 38 cents.
5 ag trends to watch
Fatka also touched on these five things in a 35-minute speech compressed from a one-hour presentation:
1. Compressed margins. On the production side, she sees improved crop prices that are not a cost of production from some grain farmers. One reason? Diesel prices approaching 2005 levels are greatly impacting the cost of production, particularly at planting and harvest. Overall, production expenses are up 44%.
Her advice to farmers isn’t new or original, but it’s essential and bears repeating: “Know your cost of production. You can execute on your market plan much more effectively when you know your cost of production.”
The caution in this tale is working capital, an early indication of financial stress in the farm economy. “We’re watching to see how much working capital has eroded,” Fatka said.
2. Farmland values. Land values in general are going up anywhere from 2% to 6%, and that’s giving farmers the collateral they need to finance their operations. Ultimately, Fatka said, “The asset values that we do see today, particularly with farmland, are preventing a 1980s repeat.”
That increase literally pays off at the bank. “That’s really important collateral,” Fatka said. “When they’re going to get their operating lines when they go to the bank, those farmland values are very important.”
3. Protein demand. Underlying support for the beef market lies in the increasing impact of GLP-1 use, the medical phenomenon introduced for diabetics and expanded to a medical weight loss regimen. With 1 in 8 Americans on prescription GLP-1 medications and an expectation that 1 in 4 will be using the drug by 2030, protein demand is impacted in two ways: People are eating far less, and they’re willing to pay twice as much for good cuts of beef.
Other protein sectors, however, are not seeing that bump. And overall, grocery spending decreases by about 5% after six months on GLP-1.
4. Trade and demographic shifts. Shrinking populations among three of the U.S.’s top five trading partners is changing the balance of trade. Japan, Korea, China and Europe have all met their population peaks. The trade partners with continuing demand for U.S. ag producers are Mexico, Latin America and Africa.
Since the North American Free Trade Agreement, now known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was enacted in 1994, U.S.-Mexico trade has quadrupled. With USMCA discussions ongoing this year, Fatka had one emphatic message: “I can’t overstate how important trade with Canada and Mexico are to us.”
5. Biofuel demand. “Biofuels remain one of the shining lights in agriculture,” Fatka said. Biofuel demand — even without an E15 mandate in the U.S. — is increasing U.S. exports, particularly of soy oil, which supports higher prices. Ethanol exports also are up 13% ahead of last year.