By Ben Westcott and Hallie Gu
Soybean futures fell to their lowest since late August after the oilseed was left off the list as the US and China detailed plans to cut tariffs on a slew of other agricultural products.
Both governments said they intend to cut rates on about $30 billion of imports as they take further steps to steady ties following last week’s summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. For China, that includes American farm products from corn to wheat and sorghum, plus many types of meat, seafood and fresh produce.
Yet soybeans were noticeably absent from the list, with only seeds of the crop included. China has already bought a lot of US beans this year, but a tariff that amounts to 13% has largely kept private traders on the sidelines.
“Soybeans got a lump of coal,” No Bull Ag analyst Susan Stroud said in a Monday note, adding that keeping the soybean tariff in place “continues to make US beans tougher to pencil for private crushers.”
Soybean futures fell as much as 3% on Monday, hitting the lowest since Aug. 31, while soybean meal fell as much as 3.3%. Wheat and corn also declined.
Traders are looking to tariff cuts to spark new Chinese demand for US crops. China has already passed the halfway mark on its pledge to buy at least 25 million tons of soybeans a year, after a flurry of recent purchases by state-owned traders. But it’s made much less progress on a second promise — made during the last Trump-Xi summit in May — to buy an additional $17 billion of US farm products.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC late last week that the US “will release on Monday more details on what we’ve accomplished.” Trump, meanwhile, said he’ll meet Xi again in China in November.
“The Trump administration keeps stringing traders along,” said Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International LLC. “By year-end we should have additional clarity, but the bulls were positioned for the news and further commitments to come on Friday at the meeting.”
The agreements could offer some relief to US growers, who are dealing with high costs for fuel and fertilizer as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine roil supplies. Farmers — a key Republican voting bloc — are currently harvesting and Trump has sought to maintain their support heading into midterm elections.
However, questions remain over how quickly Chinese purchases could ramp up from here. Global grain prices have risen over the last few months, eroding the incentive for large procurement, after attacks on Black Sea shipping slashed flows from a key exporting region. Ample supplies and sluggish demand at home have also curbed China’s appetite for imports.
Immediate purchases of US corn and wheat by China are unlikely, according to the Hightower Report.
“There is no indication there is an immediate need for additional feed grains in China,” Hightower said about corn in a Monday note. Meanwhile, US prices for wheat “remain well above other origins.”
The competitiveness of US supply versus that from other sources remains key, particularly for private buyers. Beijing has worked for years to diversify purchases to reduce reliance on the US.
A pickup in crop trade also hinges on broader bilateral relations staying stable, according to Hanver Li, chief analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. China largely shunned American agricultural purchases in 2025 as Washington and Beijing ratcheted up tariffs on each other’s goods, before a leaders’ summit last October helped ease tensions and revive buying.
Prices:
- Soybeans fell 2.8% to $12.8150 a bushel at 9:54 a.m. in Chicago
- Wheat was down 2.8% to $6.8350 a bushel
- Corn slid 1.9% to $5.18 a bushel
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