A lack of fresh bullish news for soybean export demand from China has put soybean futures prices on the defensive. However, a supportive tone from the USDA Quarterly Stocks report may likely keep soybean futures prices supported in the short term until more is known regarding U.S. harvest and soybean yield.
What’s happened
The month of September was rather quiet for soybean futures. November 2026 soybean futures traded in a modest 40-cent, sideways range for most of the month. News from China and trade deals were not as friendly as traders hoped, which led to short-term sell-off for soybean futures prices.
However, the Sept. 30 Quarterly Stocks report was supportive for soybeans. The report showed that Sept. 1 stocks came in at 315 million bushels, which was 9 million below expectations. The report also showed that 2025 production was cut 1 million bushels to 4.261 billion, in line with expectations. To come up with that production number, USDA left the 2025 yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre while harvested acres were reduced by 20,000 acres.
Will the month of October bring additional modest price action for soybean futures? Or will there be something to spur a price rally?
From a marketing perspective
Here are four items to watch for soybeans this month:
Watch the weather. U.S. soybean harvest is slow because once-parched Midwest fields are now saturated due to exceptional recent rainfall. It’s not just the harvest pace to monitor; too much rain is creating disease, mold and decay in some fields as well. This may affect final yields and quality ratings.
Tune in to the Oct. 9 USDA WASDE report. Traders will eagerly watch what USDA pegs for yield, along with U.S. and global production totals, in the next World Agricultural Supple and Demand Estimates report. Early harvest soybean yields are coming in mixed. The most recent USDA report had soybean yield marked at 52.8 bushels per acre for the 2026-27 crop year. The lower Quarterly Stocks figure leaves even less wiggle room if 2026 U.S. yields fall much below the current USDA forecast of 52.8 bpa.
Monitor demand. Soybean domestic demand is phenomenal thanks to crush demand for biofuel. Soybeans used for crush are slated at 2.78 billion bushels, up from 2.66 billion bushels last year. What still lies in question is where soybean exports will ultimately land. Right now, USDA has soybean exports for the 2026-27 crop year pegged at 1.685 billion bushels, but that number assumes China will buy 25 million metric tons from the U.S. this year.
Pay attention to managed money funds. Managers of the big investment money that partakes in the trading of commodities also watch and monitor all the fundamentals listed above, as they are looking for opportunities to invest and make money.
On the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Sept. 22 Commitment of Traders Report, managed money fund investors held a net-long soybean futures position of 265,041 contracts (just below the record amount of 266,031 contracts). Speculative length could become a market factor in the coming weeks, raising the risk of swift long liquidation if the market gets some bearish news, which could send prices dramatically lower.
Prepare yourself
October may prove to be quite volatile for soybean futures. Weather, harvest yield results, whether China purchases more U.S. soybeans and a USDA report will provide plenty of fundamental information to track.
Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim, so be confident and ready.
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