Farmers and traders alike are wise to brace for continued volatility in grain markets this week as traders await Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, as well as yield reports, particularly from Iowa’s rain-soaked cornfields.
That’s a top tip from Nick Tsiolis, CEO and founder of Farmer’s Keeper, on this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.
“The biggest news that the trade is watching is what’s going to happen as more guys in Iowa use this good weather stretch to get out there in the field so we can really see what those yields are looking like.”
Tsiolis hopes farmers took advantage of the recent corn rally, which he refers to as a “historic counter-seasonal rally — one we haven’t seen in 50 years.”
Though Tsiolis continues to see bullish potential in corn and soybean futures, particularly going into 2027’s first quarter, he urged farmers to make strategic sales now rather than hold physical grain. Record-high diesel prices, elevated interest rates, shrink and storage costs make carrying grain expensive.
“It’s advantageous to sell a certain amount of grain here at harvest — put the money in your pocket,” Tsiolis said. He suggested using options to take advantage of any post-sale upside.
“You can still protect yourself with various futures and options strategies that are out there and then be able to participate if the market goes back up,” Tsiolis said. “And if it doesn’t, at least you made those sales and you’ve covered yourself. That’s all about risk management.”
Basis strong
Corn basis shows strength nationally, supported by aggressive export programs and record diesel prices bolstering ethanol demand. Soybean basis also remains historically strong as crushers with record margins compete against robust export demand.
“They’re going to compete to get your grain,” Tsiolis said, encouraging farmers to maintain dialogue with local sellers, especially if harvest delays continue.
Looking forward, Tsiolis is concerned about 2027 margins despite favorable revenue guarantees. “Our input price is going to go up even higher,” he said.
To hear more grain sales tips, watch this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.