Corn futures plunged nearly 30 cents to an eight-week low after USDA unexpectedly hiked its production and yield estimates for the U.S. crop, signaling an abundant supply outlook for 2027 while undercutting ideas that adverse weather in parts of the Midwest would result in sharp losses. Soybean futures also tumbled after USDA’s yield and production numbers exceeded forecasts.
In its monthly Crop Production report today, USDA boosted its estimate for average 2026 U.S. corn yields to 181.2 bushels per acre, up from 178.5 bpa in September. Analysts on average were expecting the yield to drop slightly to 177.7 bpa. The average soybean yield was raised to a record 53.1 bpa from 52.8 bpa, clashing with expectations that USDA would hold the number steady (see full USDA tables below).
Corn and soybean futures rallied sharply late last summer as extreme heat or extreme rains in different parts of the Midwest fueled ideas that poor yield performance would hamper crop potential. But USDA’s numbers today, which were based on objective yield surveys, indicated damage was less severe or widespread than once thought.
The result appears to be another year of historically high production. Estimated corn production rose about 234 million bushels to 16.034 billion bushels, down 5.5% from 2025’s record harvest but still the second-largest crop on record. Soybean production rose 12 million bushels to a record 4.587 billion bushels.
In a separate report, USDA hiked its forecast for U.S. corn stockpiles at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year to 1.849 billion bushels, up 282 million bushels from last month’s estimate and above expectations for a smaller increase to about 1.67 billion bushels.
Near midday, December corn futures were down 29 cents at $4.7125 per bushel after hitting the contract’s lowest level since mid-August. November soybeans fell 12.5 cents to $12.75, near a six-week low. December soft red winter wheat tumbled 20 cents to $6.6325.
The following are summaries of key numbers from today’s Crop Production report:
