While the full impact of the U.S. military campaign in Iran remains unknown, one fact is clear. Fertilizer availability is quickly becoming a problem. That’s because a major portion of the global fertilizer supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping is currently crippled due to the ongoing conflict.
According to a Monday analysis from CoBank, the global nitrogen and phosphate markets will likely feel the greatest impact. Three of the world’s 10 largest urea exporters depend on the strait, as do three of the 10 largest ammonia exporters and one of the five largest DAP-MAP exporters.
According to Jacqui Fatka, CoBank’s lead economist for farm supplies and biofuels, product shipped through the Middle East during mid-March is set to arrive in North America for April spring planting application. That product is now at risk of being delayed or not arriving in time.
“Many farmers were coming into this spring behind the eight ball on pulling the trigger on fertilizer decisions with poor economics and overall high input costs. Waiting for fertilizer price relief proved to be a dangerous gamble,” Fatka said. “As of March 9, the North America fertilizer price index topped out at $810 per short ton, above the peak over the last year of $776.85 per short ton seen in August 2025.
“There is more upside risk in prices as fertilizer supplies are stranded in the Middle East and the ripple effects of getting that into the hands of farmers who need it this spring.”
As a recent American Farm Bureau Federation analysis noted, about 50% of the nitrogen used on corn is applied in the spring. Therefore, disruptions to fertilizers supply chains during this period could have outsized effects on input availability and prices.
According to Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum, this could potentially affect crop yields and farm operational schedules during the most critical months of the planting season.
“Countries exposed to instability in the Persian Gulf account for nearly half of globally traded urea exports and roughly 30% of ammonia exports,” Parum noted in her report. “Because these products are essential for crop production, disruptions in the region can influence fertilizer availability and prices well beyond the Middle East.”
Watch for these outcomes
Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, said TFI is watching for these major impacts:
- Natural gas. This is the feedstock and cost driver of ammonia production. Exports from the Middle East have already been disrupted, significantly increasing natural gas prices.
- Urea. About 50% of the global urea supply comes from the Middle East; Iran alone is the world’s second-largest global supplier.
- Nitrogen and phosphate. These fertilizers from major suppliers Qatar and Saudi Arabia have already been cut off due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
- Sulfur. Nearly 50% of the world’s sulfur exports pass through the strait.
Opportunities for some?
Higher energy prices have driven some commodity prices higher as well. However, not all commodities have been affected equally. Still, according to the CoBank analysis, shocks in commodity markets are typically short-lived, often followed by an overcorrection to lower prices.
“The impact of the energy market rally spilling into the commodity markets has boosted soybean prices more than corn, leading to the potential for greater soybean acres this spring especially if producers can secure those final pounds of fertilizer needed for this spring’s application,” Fatka said. “Some areas did see strong fall fertilizer application, taking some stress off those farmers who were able to apply last year.”
Farm Bureau calls for action
During a Monday call with reporters, Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall said many farmers who haven’t preordered and paid for fertilizer may not be able to get any for spring planting. He called on the Trump administration to take five steps to help farmers manage the ongoing conflict. They include:
- have the U.S. Navy facilitate safe fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
- work with international partners to maintain open shipping lanes
- improve domestic transportation capacity so fertilizer can better move through U.S. ports, rail systems and inland waterways for spring planting
- make “temporary policy adjustments” including relief from certain duties and transportation barriers
- use “all federal tools” to address insurance and financial barriers that could prevent fertilizer shipments from reaching farmers on time
Duvall also called on fertilizer companies, distributors and suppliers to avoid price gouging that would further strain farmers.
“Fertilizer prices spiking and supplies being unreliable at this moment … will directly affect farmers and the ability to plant for this year,” Duvall said. “So, we’re real concerned about the position that we’re in right now.”
Duvall is scheduled to testify before the Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday.