USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report typically doesn’t feature big changes, and the 2026 version offered further evidence of that assumption. Corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks held steady, while analysts were expecting the agency to dial in a few minor changes. Immediately following the report, corn futures sank more than 1% lower, while soybeans moved almost 0.5% higher. Winter wheat prices faced double-digit cuts in late morning trading, meantime.
“We were not expecting much out of this report, and that came to fruition as much of last month’s data was unchanged,” according to John Zanker with Farmers Keeper Financial. “Lower Argentinian production was the most positive news reported, but it was offset completely by higher Brazilian production. All eyes are on the USDA’s more consequential report, Prospective Plantings, which will give us our first estimate on the 2026-27 crop acreage released on March 31.”
Corn
USDA’s outlook for corn ending stocks held steady, at 2.127 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see a slight increase after offering an average trade guess of 2.155 billion bushels (with a range of 2.077 billion to 2.428 billion bushels). USDA left the season-average farm price alone, which remains at $4.10 per bushel.
In South America, USDA lowered Argentina’s corn production by 1.9% with a new projection of 2.047 billion bushels. And in Brazil, the agency upped that country’s corn production estimates by 0.8% to 5.196 billion bushels.
Globally, USDA increased production by 2.7 million metric tons to 1.593 billion metric tons. Increases to Ukraine and Brazil were partly offset by declines in Argentina. Global ending stocks increased from 288.98 MMT in February up to 292.75 MMT.
Soybeans
U.S. ending stocks for soybeans also held steady at 350 million bushels. Analysts were expecting a modest decline after serving up an average trade guess of 343 million bushels (with a range of 265 million to 350 million bushels). The season-average farm price for soybeans was unchanged, at $10.20 per bushel. However, USDA raised soymeal price projections by $5 to $300 per short ton and lifted soyoil price projections by 2 cents to 55 cents per pound.
In South America, USDA made no changes to its soybean production estimates, leaving Argentina at 1.782 billion bushels and Brazil at 6.614 billion bushels.
Global 2025-26 soybean supply and use forecasts assume lower production, exports and crush. Global ending stocks estimates held steady at 125.31 MMT.
Wheat
U.S. wheat ending stocks remain at 931 million bushels, according to USDA. Analysts were expecting to see that number decline to 923 million bushels (with a range of 900 to 956 million bushels). The agency upped its season-average farm price by a nickel to $4.95, based on prices reported to date and expectations for the remainder of this marketing year.
Global ending stocks faded from 277.51 MMT in February down to 276.96 MMT. That was also below the average trade guess, which came in at 277.53 MMT.
