Markets remain extremely volatile amid the ongoing war with Iran. Other fundamental factors including weather trends in Brazil could potentially result in additional wide swings in price in the weeks and months ahead. Planting of second season, or safrinha, corn in Brazil is wrapping up and has trailed last year due to a slower-than-average nationwide soybean harvest. This could eventually have an impact on yields depending on when the dry season begins. As a student of the market, you understand that weather markets are often associated with increased price volatility and are best viewed as potential opportunity for your operation.
Slow going in Brazil
Markets remain extremely volatile amid the ongoing war with Iran. For example, new-crop December corn futures this week traded to $4.98½, which is the highest level for the contract since Dec. 20, 2023. Other important fundamental information, however, could potentially affect prices in the weeks and months ahead. Weather trends in Brazil are near the top of that list for corn, as Brazil is the second largest world exporter behind the U.S.
Brazil’s corn production is broken down into three separate time periods.
- First season corn is planted in September-October, primarily in the southern states. It is harvested in February-April and usually accounts for approximately 18% of total production.
- Second season, or safrinha, corn is planted immediately after the soybean harvest in the Center-West region starting in February and continuing through March.It is harvested mainly in June-July and usually accounts for approximately 80% of total production.
- Third season corn is planted April through September in the northern and northeastern states and harvested between October and December.It usually accounts for about 2% of total production.
The safrinha crop is the one the market monitors carefully as the majority of that production is exported after harvest and competes directly with the U.S. in world markets. In its March Supply/Demand report, the USDA forecast total Brazil corn exports for the 2025-26 crop year at 1.69 billion bushels. This trails only the U.S., which is projected to ship 3.3 billion bushels.
Brazil’s dry season is critical
Wet weather during February this year slowed soybean harvest in northern Brazil, which in turn delayed planting of double crop (safrinha) corn. For example, safrinha corn planting in Central-South Brazil was at 76% as of the first week of March, which is the slowest pace since 2022.
The sluggish planting place could directly affect final yields. That’s because Brazil has a unique climate that is characterized by a rainy season and a dry season. The rainy season generally begins in November and ends in April. In contrast, the dry season in Brazil usually begins in May and ends in October. The chart above reflects rapid adjustment from the rainy season to the dry season in Central Brazil.
The timing of safrinha planting and the timing of the start of the dry season can significantly affect final corn yields. If planting occurs at an average pace, approximately 50% will be pollinating by approximately mid-April. As shown on the chart, although rainfall is declining during that month, it is still ample to support normal pollination and yields. Normal weather could produce another large safrinha crop and see Brazil export aggressively beginning in July-August and potentially continuing throughout the remainder of 2026.
This year, however, safrinha corn planting has been delayed as noted above, which in turn means that pollination will occur late in April or even in early May. If the dry season starts “on time,” i.e. in May, this year’s crop could still achieve normal yields. Occasionally, however, the dry season begins early, which most recently occurred in 2021. In that year, yields were below normal. The risk associated with this year’s later planted safrinha crop is that it will pollinate later. This could result in lower yields if the dry season were to begin early in 2026, resulting in a corresponding reduction in production and exports. Thus, another weather market has taken center stage.
What is the weather forecast for Brazil this year? At the moment, there is no strong indication of hot, dry weather during April or May, or an early start to the dry season. Weather can change quickly, however, so the market will monitor trends closely from March through May. Again, remember that weather markets are often associated with increased price volatility and are best viewed as potential opportunity for your operation.