As combines roll through fields this fall, farmers face a question that feels almost premature: Is it already time to plan for 2027? According to Arlan Suderman and Mike Castle of StoneX, the answer is yes — and waiting carries real risk.
“Once we get a feel for the size of the crop, the market starts to focus longer term on the demand side of the picture,” Suderman said.
Speaking on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Suderman urged farmers to use rainy days during harvest to proactively plan for 2027. Ask questions: “What are you going to do with your acreage shifts for the coming year? What about your input costs? It’s just a good time to be looking at booking some of those things.”
Castle used an example from the summer: nitrogen prices. “Through late summer, the market gave us an opportunity to actually lock in some pretty solid margins, specifically on the nitrogen side of things,” he said, noting that urea prices also give farmers another input to consider locking in when measured against 2027 futures.
Both analysts stress evaluating input costs against output prices as a ratio, rather than reacting emotionally to price swings. And neither recommends keeping one bullet in your pocket.
Warning against “the Barney Fife marketing method,” Suderman suggests farmers buy inputs and sell crops incrementally. “Break it into pieces, scale into it, and know what your margins are,” he said.
That’s especially wise in this volatile global arena. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Black Sea regions continues to inflate both input costs and grain prices, the pair noted, making near-term pricing windows unpredictable. And the best opportunities can happen when a farmer’s not looking — say, at harvest.
To hear more from the StoneX analysts, watch this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.