It’s time to put the pedal to the metal as farmers focus on harvest to beat rains expected to cross the country in early November.
“There’s probably another five or six days left of some extended dry weather,” said Chad Merrill of AccuWeather, speaking on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth. He expects storm systems to push into California and the Southwest before crossing the country Nov. 7-10. “Hopefully, people are taking advantage of this harvest window right now.”
Looking toward winter, Merrill sees a “very robust subtropical jet stream” bringing heavy rain to Oklahoma and Texas, while a separate storm track cuts through the middle Mississippi Valley, delivering needed snow to areas west of St. Louis and Kansas City. “That storm track is going to allow for a good bit of moisture to come up, which we desperately need for the drought,” he said.
The good news is bitterly cold Arctic air is unlikely this winter. However, the heart of the Corn Belt may miss out on moisture opportunities this winter. He forecasts average precipitation and above-average temperatures across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and the Dakotas.
That drier pattern raises concerns heading into spring. “There’s likely going to be a deficit of moisture in the heart of the ag belt there in the corn and soybean area. We could see some drought development in the spring,” Merrill said. He warns that farmers “are probably going to have to water quite a bit” and that planting delays are more likely in the western Corn Belt and Dakotas.
Meanwhile, Merrill flagged a “weather whiplash” scenario, with the Southern Plains booming in rain while the North goes short. He recommends farmers “keep paying attention” as the pattern evolves. Long-range forecasts often change.
To hear more about Merrill’s forecast, tune into this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.