Corn and soybean farmers should stay closely engaged with grain markets and local buyers over the coming months when seasonal pricing patterns often gift price rallies, according to Naomi Bloom, senior adviser at Total Farm Marketing.
In other words, take only short naps over the holidays.
Speaking on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Blohm offered tips on how to capture pricing opportunities and insight as to what is driving markets.
Bloom outlined two seasonal windows of opportunity farmers should track closely:
- Year-end local basis. End users often entice grain out of storage bins around this time, offering improved basis opportunities.
- Early-2027 grain markets. Mid-January to mid-February tends to mark seasonal price highs, often tied to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report and South American weather risks. Bloom flags this period as especially important this year given a strong El Niño pattern, which could bring hot, dry conditions to central and northern Brazil.
Prices likely will dip before coming back up.
“As we get into November, prices a lot of times do find a harvest low,” she said. “We don’t really start to gain a lot of traction until we get more into December.”
Historical data gives credence, she said, to the market adage that “the bulls get Christmas.”
Consider re-owning
Given that farmers sold more aggressively than usual this year, Blohm offered tips on re-ownership strategies.
For farmers who sold early, are willing to take some risk and want to participate in potential upside, Bloom suggests they consider buying call options. As an example, March corn call options, which were trading between 10 and 17 cents in late October, provided opportunity to capture higher prices through roughly Feb. 19. She cautions farmers to choose a strategy suited to their situation and comfort level.
For those wondering where price support might come from, Blohm pointed to crude oil. If prices rally into 2027, grain markets are likely to follow suit.
To hear more from Blohm, tune into this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.