Top Tips on a Thursday
USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand updates next week promise to influence corn and soybean market direction for the rest of the year. Lately, that direction has been mostly straight down. Will USDA throw beleaguered bulls a lifeline? This week’s edition of Top Tips details expectations for yield adjustments, along with ideas on managing pricey inputs and a tight-margin outlook for 2027.
- Are corn yields really that high in Iowa? One analyst begs to differ.
- Why it’s a good idea, with futures depressed, to watch for basis opportunities.
- 2026 was just the “warning shot” for high-priced inputs. How should you prepare for 2027?
Bevan Everett, StoneX
“This week, StoneX raised its estimate for the average U.S. corn yield to 183.1 bushels per acre, up 1 bpa from our previous forecast (and also higher than USDA’s 181.2 bpa forecast). We raised our soybean yield estimate to 55 bpa (versus USDA’s 53.1 bpa estimate).
“Our survey indicated the western Corn Belt proved more resilient in its weathering of weather problems, while the eastern Belt mostly held its ground with high yields. We saw an improvement in yield returns in the western Belt as harvest dug fully into the fields. This was most apparent in the last 30 days. There is always a gap between expectations and reality, and based on the numbers I had cross my desk, the crop was much improved over what was reported in October.
“StoneX bases its estimates on a survey of customers only, many which are commercial elevators. We have thousands of data points. The historical accuracy of the StoneX survey is very good. Over 33 years, it has an average error rate of 1.4 bpa on corn and 0.31 bpa on soybeans versus the November USDA survey. Of course, we are always aiming at USDA’s January figures, so November is just a rest point along the way.”
— Bevan Everett, risk management consultant, StoneX Financial
ACTION: Pay close attention to next week’s numbers and be ready for any surprises.
Andy Wold, Producers Hedge
“The bears have been winning, but it looks like we are rounding out a bottom. StoneX bumped its yield by a bushel to 183.1 for corn and nearly a bushel to 55 for beans. I can see the bean number, but the increase in corn leaves me scratching my head. Most I talk to in central and northern Illinois are seeing 10% to 15% reductions in corn yield from last year. Same goes for portions of Iowa and Nebraska. I know there are areas with good yields, but this variability is not bullish yield in this trader’s opinion.
“Watch how basis in both corn and beans continues to strengthen and watch for the spreads to eventually strengthen, and you’ll see the story play out. These prices are and will continue attracting demand and end-user pricing. It might take quite a little time for the algos and funds to catch up. Next week brings the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, so anything can happen. Take advantage of weakness in the market to incorporate re-ownership strategies and be patient on making additional sales. Also, take advantage of strong basis opportunities to move late-fall and winter bushels into the market.”
— Andy Wold, commodity broker, grain merchandiser and owner, Producers Hedge
ACTION: Consider basis contracts and set futures later on unsold bushels. We have plenty of time.
Gabrielle Bourret-Sicotte, Treefera
“Treefera expects a small reduction in USDA’s national corn yield estimate to about 180.3 bushels per acre versus USDA’s 181.2 bpa. One of the bigger stories is Iowa, where we forecast an average state yield at 210 bpa, lower than USDA’s 219 bpa. Our model sees good conditions in Iowa this year but not enough to support a jump of that size. With about a third of Iowa’s crop still unharvested on Nov. 1, the next reports will test that thesis. Elsewhere, growing conditions favored the northern Corn Belt, with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan running above trend. But conditions were a drag in the Plains and the South, including in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas.
“For soybeans, Treefera sees potential for a larger downward revision. We estimate the average U.S. yield at 51.8 bpa versus USDA’s 53.1, which would generate a crop of roughly 4.42 billion bushels versus USDA’s 4.56 billion. The difference is concentrated across five states: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Indiana and Arkansas. There is some evidence pointing toward stronger results in some areas, including reports from northwest Iowa showing yields matching 2025’s record levels, so Treefera’s estimate should be viewed alongside emerging harvest data.”
— Gabrielle Bourret-Sicotte, head of customer solutions, Treefera
ACTION: Be prepared to capitalize on any post-USDA report price rallies triggered by lower yields.
Matt Wiegand, FuturesOne
“We continue to see fresh lows for the move scored across corn, soybeans and wheat on a near daily basis as selling pressure persists well past the halfway point of harvest and wheat planting. Funds had built a very big long positions in the late-summer rally, and trade was able to persist at overbought levels longer than usual then, and now, deeply oversold technical conditions have persisted longer than usual. We have seen fresh export sales hold a solid pace, and shipping pace has been led by soybeans so far this fall as we return to the export markets in a more normal fashion. The dollar remains elevated but has faded off the highs, and outside markets have started to consolidate after the post-election surge, which should start to provide positive spillover if it holds. Early South American planting progress has been moving along pretty smoothly so far.
“Short term for producers, the main focus will be cleaning up harvest needs whether it is looking at rewarding basis plays for bushels in town, reestablishing ownership via calls if desired, and looking to the back months for carry for sales out of the bins on existing hedges. Also, with fuel prices fading toward the normal seasonal low time frame into winter, some needs may be able to be covered way off the highs.”
— Matt Weigand, risk management consultant, FuturesOne
ACTION: Assess if you can run a normal fall fertilizer program and what that will mean for row crop acres in the spring.
Jamie Gieseke, Paradigm Futures
“With the midterm elections behind us, the prospect of political gridlock could be viewed favorably by markets, as divided government may limit major policy changes. This could also create pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index, potentially providing a much-needed tailwind for corn and wheat exports. Technically, the dollar looks vulnerable following a failed attempt to exceed previous highs, weakening momentum, and a break below recent corrective lows. A sustained decline could provide additional support for grain prices.
“Meanwhile, as November progresses, extended weather forecasts will begin reaching a more critical period for Brazilian soybean production. While it remains early in the growing season, South American weather risks are quickly approaching greater market relevance.
“Grain Marketing 101 suggests that when futures prices are depressed, producers should focus on capturing attractive basis opportunities without necessarily pricing futures. If basis remains unfavorable, producers with grain in on-farm storage should consider Farm Service Agency Marketing Assistance Loans. These loans can provide cash flow without forcing a grain sale, allowing producers to retain future basis and futures opportunities while potentially reducing operating interest expenses.”
— Jamie Gieseke, principal, Paradigm Futures
ACTION: Investigate whether FSA Marketing Assistance Loans would make sense on your operation to improve cash flow.
Michael Hoffstatter, Growers Edge
“What we’ve found in conversations with producers is that 2026 was just the warning shot in terms of input costs. Some producers were able to secure some inputs through prepurchase type pricing and weren’t as impacted by the spike in fertilizer costs earlier this year. But input prices remain high, and in 2027, that’s something they’re going to have to deal with the full year. There’s just a lot of uncertainty across the market as people try to understand where prices are going. And when you look at expenses across the board, everything is inflated. I think a lot of growers are trying to figure out what’s the best option for them.
“Crop input financing maybe isn’t always for every operation, but many farmers are starting to get on board with having at least something in place sooner rather than later. As we see these fluctuations in costs, you can try to take advantage of those price points, maybe buy inputs throughout the year as well, and do what you can to be prepared for the 2027 growing season. Whatever your input financing or bank operating line needs, it’s important to show up to your lender with a marketing plan that’s aligned with your financing plan, and get things set up early — make sure you have those lines in place. We’re hearing a lot of growers may wait until the spring. If you’re able to take advantage of earlier discount pricing, consider that route. Give yourself flexibility.”
— Michael Hoffstatter, managing director, input financing, Growers Edge
ACTION: Communicate early and often with your lenders and make sure you understand the input cost outlook and your financing options.
John Zanker, Farmer’s Keeper
“Tuesday brings USDA’s last Crop Production report of the calendar year and will carry some serious weight until the focus shifts more heavily to South America. The chatter in the trade is leaning toward lower corn yields in Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois, with possible jumps in South Dakota and Minnesota. That matches up well with what we’ve been hearing from customers and friends, with the one exception being South Dakota.”
“My hope is for a yield adjustment back down to the 178.5 bpa mark seen in September, which could pave the way for a 30- to 40-cent futures rebound, at least. I’m not sure USDA makes an adjustment of that magnitude in one report, but it can’t be ruled out. For soybeans, I’ve heard next-to-no chatter in the trade about yields coming up short of the USDA’s current projection of 53.1 bpa.”
— John Zanker, senior analyst, Farmer’s Keeper
ACTION: Consider covering unpriced soybean bushels with the purchase of a March $12 put and the sale of a November 2028 call.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC
“Among many key factors I am currently monitoring for clients and subscribers right now, here are two that I think are especially worthy of attention. First, in the aftermath of the rebalance of power between the legislative and executive branches of U.S. government in Washington, D.C., the immediate reaction by the commodity-financial markets has been a sharp drop in crude and product markets. This has created what I see as a type of domino effect of the trade now assuming improved conditions in the Middle East will create these lower energy prices. And the lower energy prices then help take pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates — hence the higher equities/lower U.S. dollar/lower U.S. bond yields. The key here is that if the U.S. dollar goes lower for the rest of November, this likely would help a ‘risk-on’ trade again in the commodity sector as a whole.
“Drilling down to agriculture commodities more specifically, a major focus I continue to monitor is the amount of Black Sea grain and oilseed exports that can be shipped between now and the end of the calendar year because this assumes a resumption of the Grain Corridor and an agreement between Russia and Ukraine not to target dry cargo ships. While I think that the futures market is currently pricing in a return of this shipping route, I am a lot more doubtful that an agreement can be reached. It’s noteworthy that earlier this week, we saw the USDA attaché in Ukraine cut the 2026-27 corn export forecast from the official 22 million metric tons by over half, to 10.2 MMT. This move by the attaché helps us see just how little help alternative routes of grain exports have been to date; and this makes me want to monitor the upcoming WASDE report for official changes that could replicate the move by the attaché. I’ll also be watching for a similar situation in the upcoming WASDE for reduced Russian grain exports.”
— Mike Zuzolo, founder, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC
Mike Probst, BASF
“For some, harvest was finished in record time this year, with many parking the combines before the calendar turned to November. This has opened up the opportunity for ample fall work, including tillage, fertilizer applications and fall burndown herbicide applications. And while others may not be so lucky as to be done harvesting yet, the persistent warm weather we are experiencing does leave the door open for fall burndown over the next few weeks.
“Fall herbicides are one of the best ways to reduce pressure the following spring and get a clean start to the year, but timing of these applications is key. Ideally, we want daytime highs to be in the 50s for several days in a row to ensure that the weeds are actively growing and herbicide uptake will occur, especially for our systemic herbicides. For contact herbicides, good sunshine at the time of application is also important. If the rain stays away, it seems that we may have ample opportunities to make these burndown applications over the next couple of weeks before winter weather finally arrives.”
— Mike Probst, technical service representative, BASF
ACTION: Check the 10-day forecast and see if the weather is suitable for a fall burndown herbicide application in your harvested fields. (Then thank yourself next spring).
Jordan Howe, Nutrien Financial
“Tight margins in agriculture are starting to feel like more of a persistent operating condition than a temporary disruption. Market pressures growers have been responding to for the past few years aren’t showing signs of shifting. Despite better prices, the overall ag economy is still creating hurdles, so hoping for a market fix in 2027 may not be the best course. Instead, look for practical solutions that may ease some of the pressure on the bottom line.”
“As you prepare for 2027, consider where your operation stands today and opportunities to proactively strengthen your position for the season ahead. That might mean reviewing your liquidity, comparing financing options for planned purchases or bringing together the people who support your operation to identify potential gaps in your strategy. No one can say with certainty when the farm economy will turn a corner, but you don’t have to wait for that moment to evaluate your options, make adjustments and prepare.”
— Jordan Howe, area manager, Nutrien Financial
ACTION: Focus on four basic building blocks: Plan early, pay attention to your liquidity position, diversify capital and explore strategic financing aligned with your financial goals.