Following USDA’s October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, analysts sounded the alarm: Corn yields were too high.
The agency finally joined the chorus in its November WASDE report, cutting yield estimates by 1.6 bushels per acre, which was lower than traders were even expecting. Prices rose by double digits immediately following today’s data release, with soybean prices also trending substantially higher.
The bullishly viewed data sent corn futures rallying sharply off four-month lows posted Monday and sent soybeans surging from 12-week lows amid ideas that prices may have finally established a near-term bottom following a steep two-month sell-off in both markets.
Around midday, December corn futures rose almost 12 cents to $4.51 per bushel after jumping as much as 16.25 cents. January soybean futures soared over 35 cents to over $12.24 after sinking last week to $11.84, the contract’s lowest level since mid-August.
After reaching a three-year high around $5.50 on Sept. 2, December corn had tumbled over $1.10, or 20%. Soybeans fell as much as 12% from a 2.5-year high around $13.50 reached Sept. 11.
Corn prices jump 3%
Corn prices jumped more than 3% higher late Tuesday morning after USDA lowered its per-acre yield estimates to 179.6 bpa. That was well below USDA’s October estimate of 181.2 bpa and below the average analyst estimate of 181.2 bpa. That left production falling back below the 16 billion-bushel benchmark to 15.893 billion bushels.
U.S. ending stocks also sank lower, from 1.849 billion bushels last month down to 1.758 billion bushels. The trade was expecting to see a much more modest cut at 1.840 billion bushels.
On the slightly bearish side, USDA also trimmed its export outlook by 25 million bushels for the 2026-27 marketing year to 3.3 billion, “reflecting shipments and sales to date.” The season-average farm price dipped a dime lower to $4.60.
Soybean yield moves on up
Soybean yields moved modestly higher in today’s report, from 53.1 bushels per acre in October up to 53.3 bpa. Analysts were expecting to see a slightly larger hike, offering a trade guess of 53.5 bpa. That brings total production up to 5.574 billion bushels, which is 12 million bushels higher month over month.
U.S. ending stocks moved unexpectedly lower, meantime, from 315 million bushels in October down to 300 million. Analysts were expecting to see a modest increase after offering a guess of 331 million bushels.
USDA’s supply-side analysis noted higher seed use along with unchanged crush. Exports increased by 25 million bushels. The season-average farm price increased 10 cents from last month to $12.10 per bushel. Soymeal prices held steady, at $340 per short ton, while soy oil prices eased 2 cents per pound to 68 cents.
Wheat supplies hold steady
USDA’s outlook for wheat this month noted “unchanged supplies, slightly lower domestic use, steady exports and modestly higher ending stocks.” Total exports were unchanged, at 750 million bushels, with some offsetting by-class changes also noted.
U.S. ending stocks moved slightly higher, from 740 million bushels in October to 743 million bushels. That was slightly below the average trade guess of 746 million bushels, but it has still shifted 19% lower year over year. The season-average farm price tracked 10 cents lower to $6.20.
