Whether USDA’s Planting Intentions report will pop corn prices or sink soybean sales is anybody’s guess when the agency has only one card turned up: It’s February Outlook Forum estimate.
All to say USDA could run the table next Tuesday when releasing the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report.
“I’ll leave it to them to always throw a curveball in those numbers,” says Nick Tsiolis, CEO and founder of Farmer’s Keeper. Speaking on Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Tsiolis says Farmer’s Keeper estimates farmers will plant about 96 million acres of corn this season. That’s a bit higher than USDA predicted in February, when it forecasted 94 million acres of corn.
Farmer’s Keeper and Farm Futures, however, are aligned in their figures. In a Farm Futures survey completed just as the war on Iran started, farmers indicated they would plant about 96.4 million acres of corn. In 2025, farmers planted 98.8 million corn acres.
Hedge grain price bets
Rather than betting on USDA’s forecasting prowess, Tsiolis suggests farmers take more definitive action. He urges farmers to avoid trying to predict market highs and instead set profitable pricing levels and stick to a strategy.
“Don’t play the guessing game. Spread out your sales and hedge your bets,” Tsiolis advises. “Sell half before the report and half afterward. Don’t try to guess what the USDA will come out with.”
Tsiolis also recommends setting offer levels slightly below round numbers.
“If you are setting offer levels at which you want to sell a certain amount of grain, don't put that offer at a round number, like for instance, $5 on March corn right here where we're hovering a couple pennies below that,” Tsiolis says. “Put that offer level a penny or two below that round number because all these technical traders out there tend to be playing that same game and we see resistance levels oftentimes at those round numbers in the market.”
Hear more from Farmer’s Keeper on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.