Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Rains are most likely across the eastern Corn Belt over the next several days, with some fields likely to gather another 0.5” to 1” or more between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet conditions for most of the Midwest and Plains between April 1 and April 7, with warmer-than-normal temperatures highly likely for the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 360 points higher in afternoon trading to 46,484 following reports that the U.S. has sent a proposed peace plan to Iran. That news also sent energy prices spilling noticeably lower, with down more than 3% this afternoon to $97 per barrel. Gasoline futures stumbled 4.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices rose steadily throughout Wednesday’s session
Prices enjoyed a robust round of technical buying today on optimism over year-round E15 sales as bullish export demand continues throughout the current marketing year. May futures rose 4.75 cents to $4.6725, with July futures up 5.25 cents to $4.7775.
Domestic ethanol production improved to a daily average of 1.116 million barrels in the week through March 20, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out this morning. Ethanol supplies increased 3% this past week.
Meantime, the Trump Administration announced earlier today that it will issue a temporary waiver to allow E15 to be sold during summer months. The waiver will take affect for 20 days starting on May 1 and can be extended if needed, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. This move could slightly lower gas prices, which have risen more than a dollar in the past month to a nationwide average of $3.98 per gallon.
Farmers should consider continuing to monitor the situation in Iran as it pertains to reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea prices have tracked 28% higher over the past three weeks, and farmers are also exposed to potential supply chain disruptions and price increases for phosphate. A recent farmdocdaily article offers additional details – click here to learn more.
It’s not just the risk of attacks on shipping vessels that has crippled fertilizer shipments in recent weeks, added Farm Progress farm policy editor Joshua Baethge. “Skyrocketing insurance costs for shippers make it economically unfeasible for cargo ships to even attempt a voyage,” he noted. “The Trump administration announced a $20 billion maritime reinsurance program intended to help oil tankers and cargo ship traverse the Strait. That may help in the short term. Thus far, however, that program has done little to resume normal shipping through the region.” Click here to learn more.
Ukraine’s UAC Union estimates that the country’s 2026 corn production will come in between 1.220 billion and 1.260 billion bushels. That would be steady to slightly above 2025 volume, if realized. Ukraine continues to be one of the world’s top corn exporters despite its ongoing war with Russia.
Taiwan purchased 2.6 million bushels of corn from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is likely for arrival in April or May.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 330,116 contracts.
Soybean prices grabbed double-digit gains
Analysts are expecting the EPA to release its Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) numbers later this week, which mandates the volume of renewable fuels such as biodiesel. This drives domestic demand, which helped soybeans move more than 1% following a round of technical buying on Wednesday. May futures rose 16.75 cents to $11.7175, with July futures up 16.25 cents to $11.8775.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. May soymeal futures eroded more than 0.75% lower, while May soyoil futures climbed more than 2% higher.
Private exporters announced two large grain sales to Mexico on March 23. The first was for 4.0 million bushels of corn, and the second was for 5.9 million bushels of soybeans. Both sales are for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year, which began September 1.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 9.2 million and 18.4 million bushels in the week through March 19.
It’s not too early to start tweaking your marketing plan ahead of next Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings report, according to Nick Tsiolis, founder and CEO of Farmer’s Keeper. “Don’t play the guessing game. Spread out your sales and hedge your bets,” he offered. “Sell half before the report and half afterward. Don’t try to guess what the USDA will come out with.” Tsiolis served up additional thoughts n the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to watch.
Brazil’s ANEC lowered its estimates for the country’s March soybean exports by 16.5 million bushels after offering a new projection of 583.0 million bushels, a drop of around 2.8%. Brazil is both the world’s No. 1 soybean producer and exporter.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 226,994 contracts.
Winter wheat prices followed other grains higher
Traders appeared optimistic that a peace deal with Iran will be brokered soon, which triggered a round of technical buying on Wednesday. May Chicago SRW futures rose 7.75 cents to $5.9775, while May Kansas City HRW futures climbed 13.75 cents to $6.1775.
