Four years after Russia invaded Ukraine, global conflict again thrust the wheat market into the spotlight.
This time, it’s the Middle East, as the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran shook commodity markets and helped wheat futures extend a winter rally that briefly sent prices above $6 per bushel in early March.
It’s unlikely the market’s longer-term response will be similar to 2022, when Russia’s invasion fueled a rally that sent hard red winter wheat futures near $14.
Still, U.S. farmers nearing harvest of the winter crop have a few reasons for price optimism, including:
Southern Plains drought. Most of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remained in moderate to severe drought through February, and state-level crop ratings dropped sharply from the start of 2026.
Fewer acres, fewer bushels. In February, USDA forecast 2026 U.S. plantings for all wheat at 45 million acres, down 0.7% from 2025 and a six-year low. This year’s production is seen falling 6.3% to 1.86 billion bushels.
This winter’s upswing lifted July 2026 HRW futures from a December low around $5.29 to nearly $6.08 by early March, a 15% jump. While that’s an impressive gain, the past two years illustrate how such early-year rallies can be fleeting. The average peak-to-expiry decline for those two years was about $1.45, or 21%.
Extended geopolitical conflict may create a headline-driven grain market this spring. Weather and other price influencers closer to home must also be watched. When the market moves, it will move quickly.
