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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
USDA drops its Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CDT today, and as always, farmers should expect the unexpected and brace for volatility. The best offense is a good defense, market adviser Brady Huck said: “Defend against what might make you have a bad day, such as lower prices for your unsold bushels.” Do your prep work and read Farm Futures’ Top Tips.
Moisture remnants from Hurricane Isaias are expected to reach the eastern Corn Belt, with five-day rain totals for southeast Indiana and Ohio seen ranging from 0.25 to 1.25 inches, based on the National Weather Service five-day forecast. The storm is expected to make landfall late today or early Saturday in Alabama or western Florida. Iowa, Nebraska and northern Illinois could receive light rains totaling 0.1 to 0.5 inch today through Wednesday.
Corn traders expect modest cut to yield estimate
December corn fell 0.5 cent to $4.9950 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 1.75 cents Thursday to $5.0025, the contract’s fourth decline in the past five days. Futures are still up from $4.9775 at the end of last week. March futures fell 0.5 cent to $5.1475.
Corn extended a neutral-sideways consolidation overnight ahead of today’s reports. Bullish numbers could lift December futures above the past week’s range, with resistance seen around the 10- and 50-day simple moving averages (about $5.0525 and $5.0950, respectively). However, a bearish surprise could send prices below near-term support at $4.95. Other downside levels to watch include the 100-day SMA (about $4.85).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 1.5 cents Thursday to about $4.6175. Thursday’s average was about 38.5 cents under December futures, narrowing from 41.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures continued two-sided, narrow-range price action overnight ahead of today’s reports. USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand updates likely will help influence the market’s direction through the remainder of harvest. USDA is expected to slightly drop its estimate for U.S. corn yields, but it would likely take a much larger drop to get bulls excited following an unexpectedly high Sept. 1 stocks report that showed the U.S. with historically high supplies at the start of 2026-27.
The average U.S. corn yield may drop to 177.7 bushels per acre from 178.5 bpa in USDA’s September Crop Production report, based on an estimate in a Reuters survey of analysts. Production may drop to 15.721 billion bushels, down 79 million bushels from September.
A USDA yield number that comes in around the average estimate “will likely be a dud in regard to futures direction,” said John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper, in a note. The expected production decline, at less than 80 million bushels, “won't be nearly enough to offset the USDA's ending stocks increase.”
“I eventually expect the national yield to work its way closer to 176 [bpa] or less, which will be needed to reignite chatter of $6 futures,” Zanker added.
The following tables summarize analyst expectations for key yield and production numbers in Friday’s reports, based on a Reuters survey of analysts:
Despite expectations for improvement, weekly corn export sales continue to run at a relatively tepid pace one month into the 2026-27 marketing year. That may reflect a combination of recent dollar strength and the market’s recent rally above $5.
Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week that ended Oct. 1 at 769,500 metric tons (30.3 million bushels), a 44% jump from a marketing-year low the prior week. Sales were at the low end of expectations and led by Mexico at 508,800 MT. For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 769.4 million bushels, down 34% from the same point a year ago.
Analysts noted that actual export shipments of corn are up sharply so far in 2026-27, and lagging sales commitments may perk up in the wake of the market’s recent sell-off.
“Cumulative corn inspections remain off to a record fast pace, but we need to see progress on the sales side through the fall if we’re going to reach USDA’s current 3.275 billion-bushel export target,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a report. “What I’m still watching for is renewed buying interest” following USDA’s bearish Sept. 30 stocks report. Thursday’s sales data “does not capture that, but next Thursday’s report in theory should.”
Iowa holds the highest yield potential of any Corn Belt state this year but is also among the furthest behind in harvest. That’s a big reason grain traders are watching closely to see how much harvest progress Iowa farmers make this week, said Nick Tsiolas of Farmer’s Keeper.
Soybeans expected to retain record harvest potential
November soybeans rose 6.25 cents to $12.9375 late overnight after sinking 10 cents Thursday to $12.8750, the contract’s second straight daily decline. Futures are still up from $12.7825 at the end of last week and on track for a third weekly gain in the past four. January futures rose 6 cents to $13.1025.
Soybean technicals firmed slightly overnight but otherwise sustained the recent neutral-sideways pattern, with November futures just above the midpoint of this month’s range. Futures face resistance at the 20-day SMA ($13.0375) and the $13.10 area, a cent under this week’s high. Key near-term support comes in around last week’s lows around $12.73.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 10 cents Thursday to about $12.3625. Thursday’s average was about 57.5 cents under November futures, narrowing from 55.25 cents a week ago.
December soymeal rose $2.40 to $360 per ton. December soy oil rose 21 points to 68.13 cents per pound.
Soybeans rose overnight, with November futures briefly jumping nearly 12 cents amid corrective buying and short covering following two days of losses. Renewed strength in soymeal also provided support. Prices gained despite accelerating harvest activity that’s pushing fresh supplies to market.
USDA is expected to maintain its forecast for a record U.S. crop, keeping its average soybean yield estimate little changed around 52.8 bpa and production near its September estimate of 4.535 billion bushels, up 6.4% from 2025. Today’s numbers may also offer something for market bulls, with USDA expected to trim its forecasts for domestic and global soybean supplies in 2027.
The market “isn't expecting anything monumental from USDA, and that's the correct stance in my opinion,” Zanker wrote. The average yield estimate “mirrors that of the USDA's from last month and given the yield reports to-date, appears to be a reasonable assumption. With Iowa only 5% harvested as of Sunday, we still have a huge unknown there.”
The following tables summarize analysts’ expectations for key grain stocks estimates in today’s Supply and Demand report:
Soybean ending stocks over 300 million “isn't screaming for futures much above the $13 mark, so we need to keep that in mind as we move soybeans straight off the combine,” Zanker added.
Soybean export sales fell sharply last week despite ongoing purchases by China. USDA reported net U.S. sales for the week that ended Oct. 1 at 549,000 MT (20.2 million bushels), down 47% from the previous week and down 34% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations. China led buyers at 382,900 MT, including 370,400 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 837.1 million bushels, almost double the total from the same period last year, when China was not buying U.S. beans amid a protracted trade dispute.
More recently, China has made progress toward a 25-MMT annual purchase target touted by the White House. As of Oct. 1, outstanding sales commitments for U.S. beans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 11.14 MMT (409.4 million bushels). That represented almost 45% of the 25-MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing had committed to annually through 2028.
Disappointing results from last month’s U.S.-China trade summit injected unwelcome uncertainty into the soybean market, with fall harvest accelerating and a potential record U.S. crop in the pipeline. But there are still reasons to think prices can sustain a $13 handle, or even higher.
Wheat mixed despite jump in export sales
December soft red winter wheat fell 0.25 cent to $6.83 after shedding 3.25 cents Thursday to $6.8325, the contract’s second straight daily decline following a four-day win streak. Futures are little changed from $6.83 at the end of last week.
December hard red winter wheat was unchanged at $7.3625 after dropping 2.25 cents Thursday to $7.3625, the lowest close in nearly a week. Futures are up slightly from $7.3525 at the end of last week. December spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $7.0550 after losing 4.25 cents Thursday.
Wheat futures extended narrow-range trading overnight as the market continued to work lower following Wednesday’s short-lived rally. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt Black Sea shipping, but both sides are finding alternative ways to move grain out of the region, which is deflating the bullish enthusiasm that fueled market rallies in recent months. A U.S. dollar that’s strengthened to 18-month highs is another headwind to U.S. exports.
Wheat futures fell Thursday despite a steep increase in weekly export sales, which could signal that protracted Black Sea shipping disruptions may finally be providing a long-awaited boost for the U.S. market. U.S. wheat shipments remain sharply lower compared to last year’s levels.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales at a 15-week high of 451,600 MT (16.6 million bushels) for the week that ended Oct. 1, up 56% from the previous week and up 68% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of expectations and led by the Philippines at 112,000 MT.
For the 2026-27 marketing year to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 371.4 million bushels, down 32% from the same period in 2025-26.
Much of last week’s strength was driven by hard red spring wheat sales, which totaled 187,600 MT, the most for any week since January, Castle noted.
“The ultimate question remains if [or] when we see additional export demand shifted to the U.S. in the year ahead given the disruptions to Black Sea shipments and the quality issues seen on the Canadian Prairies amid their excessively wet, delayed harvest,” Castle added. “Could this week’s strength being driven by the spring wheat side be a potential sign of the latter? Obviously, a lot of forces in play here, but something worth keeping an eye on moving forward.”