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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
It’s a busy week for the grain markets and it’s only Tuesday. Later this morning, USDA drops its latest monthly WASDE update, which will include initial estimates for 2026-27. President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are expected to meet later this week. Brace for volatility, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says. She recommends getting orders placed and protecting your price floor. Details in Blohm’s latest Ag Marketing IQ column.
Trade summits usually spark anticipation for big export deals, and the Trump-Xi meeting is no exception, veteran analyst Bryce Knorr says. “Soybean futures have plenty of upside if China loads up on U.S. beans,” he said, but noted there are other potential outcomes.
Corn rises as traders await USDA supply update
July corn futures rose 3.25 cents to $4.7850 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 4 cents Monday to $4.7525. December futures rose 3 cents to $5.0075 after climbing 4.25 cents Monday to $4.9775, the contract’s highest close since May 5.
Corn technicals continued to strengthen overnight with July and December futures poised to close higher for the third day in a row. July futures moved back above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), about $4.7575, overnight and have gained back over 60% of a 26.5-cent selloff from the two-month high posted a week ago. Upside levels to watch include the $4.80 area and the May 5 high at $4.8750. December futures are creeping back within reach of a 2 ½-year intraday high of $5.0575 posted last Tuesday.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 4.25 cents Monday to just over $4.3375. Monday’s average was about 41.5 cents below July futures, narrowing slightly from 42 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures followed wheat and crude oil higher overnight as traders waited for today’s USDA Supply and Demand update and President Trump’s expected meeting with China’s Xi Jinping Thursday and Friday. Risk premium remains elevated with the U.S. and Iran making little apparent progress toward ending the war, which has oil prices pushing back above $100 per barrel.
June WTI crude futures rose over 3% overnight to $101.26 per barrel.
USDA’s Supply and Demand report will include the agency’s first estimates for the 2026-27 marketing year and the numbers could lean bearish for corn. Estimated U.S. corn stocks at the end of the 2026-27 marketing are expected to drop from a seven-year high at the end of 2025-26 but still be historically high. Corn production in the new year is expected to come in just under 16 billion bushels, down from a record 17.02 billion bushels in 2025 (see table below for analyst estimates).
The war and the Trump-Xi summit continued to distract trade from seemingly bearish implications of farmers’ quick work of this spring’s planting season, especially in the drier western Corn Belt.
Late Monday, USDA reported 57% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of Sunday, up from 38% a week earlier and above the 52% average for the past five years. Illinois and Indiana jumped to 54% and 51% planted, respectively, from 38% and 42% a week earlier. Iowa was 72% planted, up from 42% a week earlier and above the 63% five-year average.
USDA also said 23% of the U.S. corn crop had emerged, up from 13% a week earlier and ahead of the 19% five-year average.
Speculators have sharply scaled up bullish bets in corn and soybeans beyond what market fundamentals seem to justify. The managed money net long reached 344,641 futures contracts at the start of last week, the biggest since February 2025 and the equivalent of over 1.72 billion bushels, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The managed money net long in soybean futures hit 213,514 contracts, a five-month high.
“These are historically extreme positions,” Chase Koopmans, an Iowa farmer, said on his Grain Ledger Rundown blog. “There is massive speculative money supporting grain prices right now. But it also means there is very little room for funds to add more longs — the next major move in positioning is likely to be selling, not buying.”
“When funds at or near maximum historical long positions start to exit the exits can be violent and fast,” he added. “Every farmer should understand that the current price levels have a significant amount of fund-driven optimism already built in.”
Monday also brought fresh reminders of robust export demand. USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended May at 1.691 million metric tons (66.57 million bushels), down 17% from the previous week but up 30% from the same week a year earlier, USDA said. Mexico was again the top destination at 464,931 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 2.251 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25 and 6% of USDA’s full-year export target, a record 3.3 billion bushels.
Also Monday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 380,000 MT to Mexico and 128,000 MT to South Korea. Of Mexico’s total, 220,000 MT is for 2025-26 delivery and the remainder for 2026-27. South Korea’s purchase is for 2025-26 delivery.
The following summarizes analyst expectations for several closely-followed figures in today’s report, based on a Reuters survey of analysts:
Soybeans buoyed by China demand hopes
July soybeans rose 4.25 cents to $12.1725 overnight after climbing 5 cents Monday to $12.13, the highest close in a week. November soybeans rose 2.25 cents to $11.97, after advancing 5.25 cents Monday to a one-week high.
Soybean technicals firmed overnight with July futures pushing back toward the top end of the past two months’ range and tracking for a third straight close above the 10-day SMA ($12.0550). Another strong close today could have bulls targeting last week’s high at $12.2625 and set the stage for a run at the March high around $12.50. November futures hit a two-year intraday high at $12.0125 on Monday and are within a few cents of the market’s first $12 close since May 2024.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 5.75 cents Monday to $11.4625, a one-week high. Monday’s average was about 66.75 cents below July futures, narrowing from 68.5 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal rose $1.70 to $326.50 per ton overnight after surging 1.6% Monday to post the contract’s highest close in almost two weeks. July soyoil rose 83 points to 74.57 cents per pound after slipping 58 points Monday to 73.74 cents, near a two-week low.
The soy complex followed buoyant energy markets higher overnight as both gasoline and diesel futures climbed near the four-year highs posted in recent weeks. Trade remains fixated on hopes the Trump-Xi summit will generate fresh export business for the U.S., overshadowing bearish implications of rapid planting progress and an outlook for higher acreage and bigger supplies.
USDA’s report today could carry bearish implications for soybeans, with this year’s harvest expected to increase and ending stocks likely expanding from 2025-26. The 2026-27 soybean crop is seen around 4.447 billion bushels, based on a Bloomberg survey, which would be up 4.3% from 2025. The average yield may come in around 53 bushels per acre, equal to 2025’s average yield.
Farmers continue to make brisk planting progress, boosting prospects for a large crop.
USDA said 49% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 33% a week earlier and ahead of the 36% average for the past five years. A year ago, the crop was 45% planted. Last week’s rains slowed fieldwork in the eastern Midwest but Illinois and Indiana still moved to 57% and 51% planted, respectively, from 46% and 44%. Iowa jumped to 60% from 27% last week, above the 48% five-year average. About 20% of the overall crop had emerged, up from 13% a week earlier and the 12% five-year average.
U.S. soybean shipments jumped sharply last week thanks in large part to China, based on USDA inspections data. Soybean inspections for the week ended May 7 totaled 655,294 MT (24.1 million bushels), up 30% from the previous week and up 49% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 336,638 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 1.248 billion bushels, down 23% from the same period in 2024-25 and below the pace needed to attain USDA’s full-year export target of 1.54 billion bushels.
Brazil is known for large farms and vast spaces, but the country’s next generation of farmers appears more focused on efficiency and sustainability. “I, myself, do not want to buy any more farms,” one Brazilian farmer said. Three lessons from Brazil ag: No. 1, bigger isn’t always better.
Wheat futures jump as condition ratings deteriorate
July SRW wheat surged 11.25 cents to $6.45 after earlier touching $6.48, a one-week high. Wheat’s technical posture strengthened Monday with July SRW futures closing back above the 20-day SMA (about $6.24), and the market has gained back about 42 cents, or 64%, of a 66.25-cent tumble from a 23-month high at $6.7150 hit April 29.
July HRW wheat rose 16 cents to $7.0225 after earlier reaching $7.0425, the contract’s highest intraday price since April 30. HRW futures are still down from a 23-month high at $7.1850 posted April 29. July spring wheat rose 10.75 cents to $6.9725.
Wheat futures extended gains overnight in the wake of further deterioration in USDA’s weekly crop ratings, which underscored the likelihood that Plains drought will lead to a sharp drop in yields. Recent rains in some dry pockets of the Southern Plains were probably insufficient to reverse drought damage, and the region holds limited rain potential this week.
In addition to today’s monthly Supply and Demand update, USDA is also scheduled to release a separate Crop Production report that will include the agency’s first estimates for the 2026-27 winter wheat harvest. The following summarizes analyst production expectations for several top varieties of U.S. wheat, based on a Reuters survey.
Winter wheat crop conditions eroded further last week as key Southern Plains growing areas remained gripped by drought.
USDA reported 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, down from 31% a week earlier and 54% a year ago. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” increased to 40% from 37%.
In Kansas, the top wheat-producer, the good-to-excellent rating fell for the fifth consecutive week, dropping to 17% from 22%, while 51% of the state’s crop came in at poor-to-very-poor, up from 44%. Oklahoma’s good-to-excellent figure plunged to 9% from 16% and its poor-to-very-poor figure rose to 51% from 49%. Texas had a 55% poor-to-very-poor rating, down from 56% a week earlier.
Overall, the U.S. winter wheat crop was 61% headed as of Sunday, up from 49% the previous week and above the 45% average for the past five years. The spring wheat crop improved to 53% planted from 32% a week earlier and ahead of the 51% five-year average.
Wheat shipments continued a trend of slight improvement in recent weeks. USDA said inspections for the week ended May 7 totaled 511,436 MT (18.8 million bushels), up 1.8% from the prior week and up 26% from the same week in 2025. South Korea was the largest destination at 111,630 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 840.4 million bushels, up almost 13% from the same period a year earlier and 93.4% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Greater rain prospects for eastern Corn Belt
Rainfall prospects for the central and eastern Corn Belt have increased somewhat the rest of the week, with totals ranging from 0.1 inch to 0.75 inch possible from Iowa and Missouri eastward through Ohio, based on a National Weather Service 5-day outlook. Little or no rain is expected in the western Corn Belt and the Southern Plains the rest of the week.
Extended forecasts call for warmer and wetter conditions for most of the Midwest and Plains during the second half of May.
The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-14-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover May 17-25, show above-normal temperatures expanding across the Plains and Midwest, with the exception of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Precipitation probabilities remain above normal for most of the region.