Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

It’s imperative to have a good handle on your farm’s profitability in today’s economic environment. There are several methods to calculate farm profitability, Purdue ag economist Michael Langemeier says, but one in particular offers a more meaningful benchmark: operating profit margin. Langemeier explains how this metric works and targets to aim for.

Corn supported by strong demand

July corn futures fell 0.25 cent to $4.5750 per bushel late in overnight trading after slipping 2.75 cents Thursday to $4.5775. Futures are still up from $4.5125 at the end of last week and poised to break a four-week losing streak. December futures fell 1 cent to $4.7575, up from $4.7225 at the end of last week.

Corn technicals strengthened this week as old-crop futures bounced from six-week lows and appeared to put in a near-term bottom. On Thursday, July futures dropped back under the 50-day simple moving average, currently $4.5950, but rebounded to test that level overnight. A firm close today could encourage additional buying next week. Upside targets include this week’s high ($4.6250) and the 20-day SMA ($4.64).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 2.75 cents Thursday to $4.11. Thursday’s average was about 37.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 39.5 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures appeared to finally arrest downside momentum this week as strong demand fundamentals encouraged buyers to emerge. Traders seem to be moving on from the Middle East conflict as Midwest weather assumes primary focus. Widespread, heavy rains across the region, especially the eastern Corn Belt, likely stalled fieldwork. However, the western Belt was mostly dry and Nebraska remains gripped by drought, which could become a growing concern.

Longer-term forecasts suggest drier conditions may return by late April, allowing for stepped-up seeding efforts. USDA said 5% of the U.S. corn crop was planted at the start of the week, above the 4% average for that date the past five years.

For corn prices, “there is some solid (upside) momentum building but it might prove difficult to build on it next week if the planting window opens up in both the east and west,” John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper Alliance, said in a note. Extended forecasts “are definitely a mixed bag at this point but in general, there is not much out there suggesting any major delays for the majority of the Belt.”

Crude oil futures dropped overnight amid hopes potential U.S.-Iran talks signal the war may be near an end. President Trump said he expects a deal with Iran to be announced “fairly soon” and claimed that Tehran had agreed to terms it had long resisted. May WTI crude fell about 3.5% to $91.35 per barrel late in overnight trading, down from a four-year high above $117 on April 7.

USDA’s weekly export sales update Thursday further reinforced ideas USDA’s full-year corn export forecast, already a record 3.3 billion bushels, may need to be moved even higher.

Net U.S. corn sales for the week ended April 9 totaled 1.401 million metric tons (55.2 million bushels), up 3% from the previous week and up 14% from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA reported. Japan led buyers at 339,400 MT followed by South Korea at 333,100 MT. Sales were at the upper end of analysts’ expectations.

For 2025-26 to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.866 billion bushels, up 29% from the same period in 2024-25. Sales would need to average only about 19.1 million bushels a week the rest of 2025-26 to meet USDA’s current target, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt.

What’s keeping Illinois farmer Matt Bennett up at night? Soaring fertilizer costs, among other things. “It’s beyond scary,” says Bennett, who’s also CEO of AgMarket.Net. Amid market turmoil, it’s critical farmers stay disciplined.

“Figure your break-evens, set believable yield targets, and stick to your marketing plan. If prices hit your sales target, let it happen,” Bennett said in an Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Soybeans follow crude oil lower overnight

July soybeans fell 4.5 cents to $11.76 overnight after dropping 2.75 cents Thursday to $11.8050, around the middle of the past month’s range. Futures are down from $11.9125 at the end of last week. November soybeans fell 4.25 cents to $11.5175 after gaining 1.5 cents Thursday.

Soybeans extended a month-long sideways grind overnight as bulls and bears continued to battle to a stalemate. Near-term technicals appear largely neutral but a soft close today could signal downside next week if funds start bailing on a still-hefty net-long position. For July futures, key levels to watch include Monday’s high ($11.99) and last week’s low (around $11.57). July futures appear poised for a close below the 50-day SMA ($11.79) which may discourage funds.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 3 cents Thursday to just over $10.9775. Thursday’s average was about 66 cents below May futures, narrowing from 68 cents a week earlier.

May soymeal fell $1 to $331.70 per ton overnight after shedding $1.70 Thursday. May soyoil fell 47 points to 68.86 cents per pound after jumping 2.6% Thursday to the market’s highest close in over a week.

Weaker crude oil weighed on the soy complex overnight, extending pressure that followed disappointing export sales numbers Thursday. Soybean bulls still retained encouragement this week from record crushing data and hopes the expected Trump-Xi meeting next month may lead to more Chinese purchases.

Earlier this week, the National Oilseed Processors Association said U.S. crushing totaled 226.2 million bushels in March, below trade expectations but still up 16% from the same month a year earlier. The March figure was also a record for that month. Based on NOPA data, crushing so far in the 2025-26 marketing year is up 8.8% from the same period in 2024-25.

While farmers may take heart in a strong outlook for biofuels use, USDA’s weekly export sales report provided another reminder that demand fundamentals aren’t bullish across the board.

USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended April 9 at a marketing year low of 247,900 MT (9.1 million bushels), down 16% from the previous week and down 39% from the four-week average. Egypt led buyers at 58,100 MT. China was not listed as a buyer. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.402 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year.

Wheat futures extend drought-driven rally

July SRW wheat rose 2 cents to $6.0850 after advancing 4.75 cents Thursday to $6.0650, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily gain and its highest settlement since April 7. Futures are up from $5.8075 at the end of last week and on track to halt a two-week slide.

July HRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $6.5675 after soaring another 16.5 cents Thursday to $6.55, the fourth straight daily gain and the highest close for a most-active contract since June 2024.

HRW futures are up from $6.05 at the end of last week. July spring wheat rose 1.25 cents to $6.6825 after adding 12.75 cents Thursday.

Winter wheat futures extended this week’s rally overnight amid escalating concern Plains drought will hamper yield performance. Panhandle growing regions have missed out on recent storm systems that dumped rain on many other parts of the central U.S. Western Kansas also needs rain. But late-April outlooks hold greater hopes for precipitation.

Based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, most of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle was in “severe” to “extreme” drought as of Tuesday, while the western half of Kansas was either abnormally dry or in “moderate” drought. Most of Nebraska was in severe to extreme drought.

Monday’s weekly crop ratings may show further deterioration. Early this week, USDA reported 34% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of April 12, down from 35% a week earlier and down from 47% a year ago. The amount of the crop rated “poor” or “very poor” increased to 32% from 31%. In Kansas, the top wheat-producing state, the good-to-excellent rating fell to 32% from 38%.

Global interest in U.S. wheat continues to dissipate as the 2025-26 marketing year winds down.

USDA reported weekly net old-crop wheat sales of 100,300 MT (3.69 million bushels), down 39% from the previous week and down 48% from the four-week average. Nigeria led buyers at 52,400 MT. USDA also reported net U.S. wheat sales of 131,000 MT for 2026-27 delivery, led by South Korea at 90,000 MT. The 2026-27 marketing year begins June 1.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 895.5 million bushels, up 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 99.5% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Western Corn Belt dry through weekend, rain for east

More rain is heading for the eastern and southern Corn Belt through early next week, with 0.75 inch to as much as 3 inches possible for Missouri and southeast Kansas by Monday, based on NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Lighter amounts are expected for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The western Corn Belt and the Panhandle region will remain dry.

Longer-term forecasts for the central U.S. have shifted cooler and drier for the final days of April. The National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day outlook continues to call for above-normal temperatures and precipitation chances for most of the Midwest and Plains.

But the 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers April 24-30, now predicts below-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation for the region. The Southern Plains still retains above-normal rain prospects.

boosted odds for above-normal precipitation in the southern and eastern Corn Belt and the Delta. Temperatures in much of the Midwest may return closer to normal levels by late April.

Stocks poised for strong close to record week

Stock index futures climbed overnight, signaling a strong close to a record week for U.S. equities, as oil prices dropped and investors grew increasingly confident the U.S. and Iran are close to a peace deal.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose over 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2% and Dow futures advanced 0.4%. On Thursday, the underlying S&P 500 closed at a record high for the second straight day and has rallied 3.3% so far this week.