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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Slumping grain markets are surely putting farmers’ patience and marketing strategies to the test. Brazil’s election was just the latest of many twists in this year’s wild market ride. Advance Trading’s JJ Keske highlights three practical questions to test how your strategy is holding up. No. 1: Do you have a plan for unpriced bushels? Get the full list in Keske’s Ag Marketing IQ.
Widespread and potentially heavy rains will drench much of the central U.S. from the Dakotas south through the Mississippi Delta through the middle of next week. Five-day totals for Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas could range from 1.5 to 3 inches, according to the National Weather Service. Somewhat lighter amounts are seen for Nebraska and Illinois. The six-to-10-day outlook retains warmth and above-normal moisture odds for the first week of November.
Corn near 4-month low as harvest steams ahead
December corn fell 2.25 cents to $4.49 per bushel late in overnight trading after edging down 0.5 cent Thursday to $4.5125. Futures are still down from $4.56 at the end of last week, tracking for a fifth straight weekly loss, and down over 51 cents for the month. March futures fell 2.5 cents to $4.6225.
Corn technicals extended a neutral-bearish posture overnight as December futures fell under $4.50 and neared Thursday’s low at $4.4750, the contract’s lowest intraday price since July 10. The market seems to be probing for a near-term bottom, but a weak close today leaves the market vulnerable to further downside next week. A breach of that low could have bears aiming for the June low around $4.26.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price was little changed Thursday at just under $4.1375. Thursday’s average was about 37.5 cents under December futures, narrowing from 39 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures remained under pressure overnight as rapid harvest activity over the past two weeks filled the supply pipeline. Widespread rains starting this weekend will likely slow fieldwork over much of the Midwest, but with likely at least three-fourths of the harvest complete, that’s likely to be of limited market concern. USDA reported 60% of the U.S. harvest complete at the start of the week.
After this week, trade focus will increasingly shift to USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production report, which some analysts believe will include a slight downgrade to the corn yield. In October, USDA boosted its average U.S. yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre.
Corn export sales extended a strong run as global buyers continued to step up to take advantage of the market’s recent downturn. But sales commitments so far in the 2026-27 marketing year remain sharply behind 2025-26 levels.
USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ending Oct. 22 at 1.304 million metric tons (51.3 million bushels), down 15% from the prior week but up 32% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were in the upper half of expectations. “Unknown destinations” was cited as the week’s top buyer at 411,800 metric tons, followed by Mexico at 318,900 MT.
For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments totaled 925.1 million bushels, down 34% from the same point a year ago. Cumulative sales continue to trail the pace needed to attain USDA’s full-year export forecast of 3.3 billion bushels.
“It will be important to see continued progress following this drop in prices in the weeks [and] months ahead, or we’ll run the risk of seeing USDA be forced to walk that export target back,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a note.
Farmers need to keep combines rolling the next few days because October’s window of mostly dry, harvest-friendly weather is about to end, with a wetter outlook for early November, AccuWeather’s Chad Merrill said in Ag Marketing IQ In Depth. Merrill also said El Niño could bring some winter twists.
Soybeans pressed by weak charts, Brazil election
November soybeans fell 2.25 cents to $12.1750 late overnight after dropping 4.75 cents Thursday to $12.1975, the contract’s fourth consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since Aug. 18. Futures are down over 38 cents for the week and down over 75 cents for the month. January futures fell 3 cents to $12.3175.
Soybean technicals retained a bearish posture overnight as November futures slipped back toward Thursday’s 10-week intraday low at $12.1250. Futures are poised for a third straight close below the 100-day simple moving average (about $12.3250), and a weak finish today could prompt bears to target the $12 area next week. There appears to be little downside support until around $11.78, which coincides with a trend line drawn from the January lows, and the August low at $11.65.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 4 cents Thursday to just under $11.63, a 2.5-month low. Thursday’s average was about 56.75 cents under November futures, narrowing from 57.5 cents a week ago.
December soymeal fell $2.70 to $326.60 per ton after shedding $6.40 Thursday to $329.30, a two-month closing low. December soy oil rose 43 points to 66.07 cents per pound after rebounding from an early drop Thursday to a six-month intraday low to end with a gain of 8 points.
Soybean futures remained under pressure overnight as eroding charts encouraged managed money funds to unwind a still-sizable net-long position. The bearishly viewed Brazil election results and weakness in the real were the initial catalysts for this week’s losses, overshadowing strong exports. Active harvest and expectations USDA will hike yield estimates in November also weighed on the market.
Soy oil futures may be seeing some support from surging crude oil prices, which jumped over 2% Friday and were on track for a fourth monthly gain amid expectations for potential escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict after the midterm elections. Brent crude reached $118 per barrel overnight and WTI futures nearly touched $105.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales remained strong behind a recent string of Chinese purchases. USDA reported net U.S. sales for the week ending Oct. 22 at 2.576 MMT (94.6 million bushels), down 9% from the previous week but up from the four-week average. Sales were at the high end of expectations and were led by China at 1.627 MMT, including 255,000 MT switched from unknown destinations.
For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 1.057 billion bushels, up 80% from the same period last year and the strongest pace in four years.
China is getting closer to a 25-MMT full-year purchase target that arose from a U.S.-China trade truce reached a year ago. As of Oct. 22, outstanding sales commitments for U.S. beans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 15.07 MMT, or 60% of the 25-MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing committed to through 2028.
Wheat under pressure despite surge in export sales
December soft red winter wheat fell 1.5 cents to $6.0225 after adding 4.75 cents Thursday to $6.0375, rebounding from a four-month closing low Wednesday and halting a three-day losing streak. Futures are still down from $6.25 at the end of last week and heading for a ninth straight weekly decline.
December hard red wheat fell 3 cents to $6.4225 after climbing 2.25 cents Thursday to break a 10-day losing streak that sent prices to four-month lows. Hard red winter wheat futures are still down from $6.6450 at the end of last week and tracking for the market’s ninth weekly decline in a row.
December spring wheat fell 0.75 cent to $6.2375 after gaining 5.5 cents Thursday, up from a four-month low.
Wheat futures resumed a downward path overnight amid ongoing bearishness tied to ample global supplies and improving crop conditions in the U.S. Plains. Pressure this week also stemmed from reports Russia reopened some key Black Sea shipping routes and has turned to an Arctic World War II shipping route to export grain for the first time with Ukraine conflict restricting Black Sea trade.
Prices are under pressure despite a sharp jump in wheat export sales, indicating that the market’s steep drop since early September has sparked renewed buying interest. Sales so far in 2026-27 remain sharply down from last year and near the slowest pace on record.
USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ending Oct. 22 at 849,800 MT (31.2 million bushels), over triple the previous week’s sales and the highest for a single week since November 2025. Sales were well above expectations and led by the Philippines at 226,300 MT.
For the 2026-27 marketing year to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 423.2 million bushels, down 29% from the same period in 2025-26.
“The sharp break lower in prices is clearly bringing buyers around the world back to the table,” Castle wrote, “but it will be interesting to see if this week was a one-off or if this strength can continue given the ongoing disruption to supply from the Black Sea and various quality issues arising in other notable origins.”