Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

USDA’s Prospective Plantings report Tuesday is expected to show a sharp jump in U.S. soybean acreage and a drop in corn, but maybe not as large as some may think. A Farm Futures survey suggests a relatively modest decline in corn ground. “Producers are still going to want to plant corn,” AgMarket.Net’s Matt Bennett says, though he acknowledges the crop is more cost-prohibitive this year. Read more on the Farm Futures survey results.

Corn up ahead of expected acreage drop

May corn futures rose 2.25 cents to $4.6925 per bushel late in overnight trading, up from $4.6550 at the end of last week and poised for a fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks. December futures rose 1.5 cents to $4.96 and are on track for the contract’s highest close in over two years.

Corn technicals firmed overnight with May futures heading for a fourth straight close above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.63. Near-term upside targets include Monday’s high at $4.7375 and a 10-month high at $4.76, posted March 9. A strong close today could set prices up for a test of those highs next week, but traders may be reluctant to push the market much higher ahead of Tuesday’s reports. Downside levels to watch include this week’s low at $4.5650.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 0.25 cent Thursday to just under $4.2450. Thursday’s average was about 42.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures climbed overnight with support from gains in crude oil, which remained near multi-year highs amid signs of little progress in ending the Middle East war. On Thursday, President Trump said he was extending the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days at Iran’s request. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has not requested the 10-day pause and has yet to provide its final response to the U.S.’s 15-point plan to end the war.

May WTI crude rose almost 2.5% to $96.75 per barrel late in overnight trading and is up almost 45% for the month. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped over 2% to almost $111.

Futures extended a 2 1/2-month rally this week behind expectations USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will show a sharp decline in corn acres this year. Prices also drew support from after the Environmental Protection Agency issued a waiver to allow summer sales of E15 gasoline this year amid efforts to ease soaring fuel costs, signaling greater demand for ethanol.

On Tuesday, USDA is expected to forecast a pullback in U.S. corn plantings following last year’s nine-decade high at 98.79 million acres. U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 94.371 million acres to corn this year, based on the average estimate in a Reuters survey of analysts. Estimates ranged from 92.6 million acres to 96 million acres. The average estimate would be up slightly from USDA’s February estimate at 94 million acres.

USDA will also report quarterly Grain Stocks the same day. Nationwide corn stockpiles as of March 1 are expected to come in around 9.04 billion bushels, up 11% from a year earlier. March 1 soybean supplies are seen around 2.06 billion bushels, up 8%.

“We’re well-stocked in both crops heading into the 2026 planting season,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note.

Whether Tuesday’s USDA acreage and stocks reports send corn and soybeans skyward, subterranean or somewhere in between, is anyone’s guess. But don’t get sucked into a USDA guessing game, Farmer’s Keeper CEO Nick Tsiolis says. “Don’t play the guessing game. Spread out your sales and hedge your bets,” Tsiolis says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

USDA’s weekly export sales report Thursday indicated some moderation in what’s still easily a record demand pace for corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. Net U.S. corn sales for 2025-26 delivery totaled 1.218 million metric tons (48 million bushels) for the week ended March 19, up 4% from the prior week but down 10% from the four-week average. Sales were around the middle expectations and led by Mexico, at 428,600 metric tons.

For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.712 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25 and 88% of USDA’s full-year export target. Mexico leads buyers at 820.2 million bushels so far this year, or 30% of all sales.

Soybeans higher ahead of expected biofuels news

May soybeans rose 1 cent to $11.7475 overnight after gaining 2 cents Thursday to $11.7375, the contract’s highest close since March 13. Futures are up from $11.6125 at the end of last week and tracking for the market’s seventh weekly advance in the past eight weeks. November soybeans rose 3 cents to $11.5575, up from $11.41 at the end of last week.

Soybeans’ technical posture firmed slightly late this week but May futures remain well-off a 21-month high around $12.39 reached March 12. Sideways-firmer chart action may continue ahead of Tuesday’s reports, with near-term upside targets including the 20-day SMA ($11.7950) and the $11.90 area.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 2.25 cents Thursday to $11.0025. Thursday’s average was about 73.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 75 cents a week earlier.

Soybean futures climbed with corn and wheat overnight and extended an upside bias ahead of the White House’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event today, during which the administration is expected to announce stepped-up biofuels blending requirements, known as Renewable Volume Obligations. Higher mandates would likely boost crushing demand, which is already running at a record pace.

“Optimism abounds for today's White House meeting and that's heavily projected by the funds' massive (long) positions in beans, meal and oil,” John Zanker, senior analyst with Farmer’s Keeper Financial, said in a report. “It's very safe to say that the numbers from today's announcement need to meet or exceed trade expectations.”

Prices also gained a boost from stronger-than-expected weekly export sales, which included additional purchases from China.

Early Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales totaled 668,900 MT (24.6 million bushels) for the week ended March 19, up 89% from the average for the previous four weeks and a five-week high, USDA reported. China led buyers at 263,000 MT, including 260,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments now total 1.369 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total 11.24 MMT (413 million bushels), roughly half the 21.8 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Longer-term price upside may be limited by expectations from bearish supply fundamentals, including an expected record Brazil harvest and outlook for greater U.S. soybean plantings this spring. On Wednesday, private firm Agroconsult said it raised its estimate for 2026 Brazilian soybean production by 0.9% to a record 184.7 MMT (6.79 billion bushels), following a field survey.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 85.549 million acres to soybeans this year, based on the analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 84.25 million acres to 86.5 million acres. The average estimate would be up slightly from USDA’s February estimate at 85 million acres and up over 5% from a six-year low in 2025.

Wheat supported by smaller acreage outlook

May SRW wheat rose 2.25 cents to $6.0725 after jumping 7.25 cents Thursday to $6.05, the contract’s highest settlement since March 19. Futures are up from $5.9525 at the end of last week and poised to halt a two-week slide but remain down sharply from a nine-month intraday high of $6.4175 posted March 9.

May HRW wheat rose 4.5 cents to $6.3125 after rallying 9 cents Thursday to $6.2675, the contract’s highest close in a week. May spring wheat rose 3 cents to $6.48 after ending near a two-week high Thursday.

Wheat futures climbed overnight with support from stronger corn and crude oil and some concern parts of the Plains could miss out on much-needed rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Still, the latest 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service continue to show strong precipitation chances for the Plains and Midwest starting through the first week of April.

USDA’s March 31 report is expected to show a decline in wheat acres, reflecting the market’s protracted price slump that’s squeezed growers.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 44.876 million acres to all varieties of wheat this year, based on the analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 43.05 million acres to 46.6 million acres. In February, USDA pegged all wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year.

Earlier this week, continued erosion in state-level USDA crop ratings further underscored the potential for drought damage. Nearly all of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas was covered by “moderate” to “extreme” drought as of March 17, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Thursday’s USDA export sales report suggested some improvement in wheat demand.

USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended March 19 at 397,200 MT (14.6 million bushels), more than double the previous week’s sales and up 46% from the four-week average. Sales were at the high end of expectations and led by the Philippines at 69,700 MT.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 885 million bushels, up 15% from the same period in 2024-25 and 98.3% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Wet start to April for most of Midwest

After widespread rains across much of the eastern Corn Belt this week, most of the Midwest as well as the Plains looks mostly dry today through Monday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour outlook. Far southern areas of Indiana, Missouri and Ohio may receive light showers.

Further ahead, the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14 day outlooks continue to call for above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the Midwest and Southern Plains through the first week of April. The 6-to-10-day, which covers April 1-5, shifts the greatest odds for higher precipitation to the central Corn Belt, including much of Illinois and Missouri

Wall Street poised to extend weakness

Stock index futures fell overnight as oil prices surged and the market assessed contradicting signals about the Middle East war. Investors were also rattled by reports of China’s decision to launch two investigations into U.S. trade practices ahead of an anticipated summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes dropped about 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, while Dow futures eased 0.4%. On Thursday, the underlying S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since early September. The U.S. dollar index rose almost 0.2%.

May WTI crude rose over $3.30, or almost 4%, to $93.64 per barrel late in overnight trading. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed over 4% to $106.53.