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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The widely followed stocks-to-use ratio in corn is heading toward a five-year low under 10%, after harsh summer weather slashed yield potential. As a result, the market has quickly flipped back in farmers’ favor, with $6 corn a real possibility — in 2027, perhaps. Meantime, selling at least some grain right off the combine with prices still above $5 makes sense, advisers say.
Early harvest activity will likely slow with widespread and potentially heavy rains blanketing much oof the Upper Midwest and eastern Corn Belt into early next week. Heaviest amounts are seen for Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, where rain totals may range from 1.5 to over 3 inches by Tuesday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. South Dakota may receive 0.75 to 3 inches. Extended forecasts retain a warm and mostly dry finish for September.
Corn burdened by accelerating harvest
December corn futures fell 2.75 cents to $5.3150 per bushel late in overnight trading after slipping 1.5 cents Wednesday to $5.3425, around the middle of the day’s range. March futures fell 3 cents to $5.4575.
Corn technicals extended a narrow-range sideways consolidation overnight, with December futures testing and holding support at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $5.30 but still edging into the lower half of the past three weeks’ range. Sideways-weaker price action is likely as we move deeper into harvest season. December futures have dropped about 16 cents from a three-year high at $5.4975 posted Sept. 2 and are closing in on last week’s low $5.2325.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 1.5 cents Wednesday to about $4.89. Wednesday’s average was about 45.25 cents under December futures, narrowing from 46.75 a week earlier.
Corn futures eroded further overnight in relatively subdued narrow-range trading as the market monitored reports from early harvest. Midwest rains through the weekend likely will slow harvest activity, but conditions are expected to turn drier next week. Anecdotal reports of disappointing yield results are circulating but have failed to inspire much buying interest. Sideways-lower may be the path of least resistance over the near-term.
In other markets, crude oil futues fell overnight following reports of additional Saudi crude cargoes moving through Oman, which eased supply concerns. But prices remained above $100 a barrel and near four-year highs amid ongoing concern the Middle East conflict could widen.
The corn market retains a bullish long-term fundamental story, but near-term upside may be tough to come by as harvest accelerates. Overall production is still expected to be the second largest on record despite weather extremes that hit different parts of the Midwest over the summer.
Today’s weekly export sales report from USDA likely will show strong numbers for corn, though sales commitments have lagged sharply behind last year’s record levels. Analysts expect net 2026-27 U.S. corn sales to range from 700,000 metric tons to 2 million metric tons (27.6 million to 78.7 million bushels) for the week that ended Sept. 10, based on a Reuters survey.
A week ago, USDA reported net new-crop U.S. corn sales for the week that ended Sept. 3 at 1.929 million metric tons, down 2.9% from the previous week. Sales commitments for 2026-27 to date totaled 644.6 million bushels, down 28% from the same point a year ago.
U.S. ethanol distillers kept production steady last week though output continued to run above year-ago levels. Production averaged 1.099 million barrels a day during the week that ended Sept. 11, even with the previous week, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, output averaged 1.11 million barrels a day, up 2.7% from the same period in 2025.
The EIA also reported a 1.5% weekly increase in U.S. distillate supplies, which include diesel, to 107.9 million barrels. However, distillate supplies are still down almost 14% from year-ago levels, contributing to a sharp spike in diesel prices. Retail on-highway diesel averaged a record $6.29 per gallon at the start of this week, up 68% from a year ago.
From a macro perspective, rising diesel prices continue to “keep support under broader inflationary pressures, while from an agricultural market perspective, it squeezes farm margins at the onset of the uptick in seasonal demand for harvest,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a note.
Extended forecasts show September closing warm and dry. The NWS six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day outlooks, which cover Sept. 22-30, call for above-normal temperatures for the entire Corn Belt while expanding below-normal precipitation odds to cover most of the eastern belt and Great Lakes.
Bringing in the bushels requires a lot of gallons, and filling up tractors and combines this fall is going to take a bigger bite out of farmers’ bottom lines as Middle East war sends crude oil above $100 per barrel and pushes diesel prices to record highs. Brace for high fuel costs for the foreseeable future, as there’s little end in sight, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm said.
Soybeans pressured by strong yield prospects
November soybeans fell 1.25 cents to $13.1925 late overnight after gaining 1.75 cents Wednesday to $13.2050, the contract’s third consecutive daily advance after closing at a two-week low Friday. January soybeans fell 1.25 cents to $13.36.
Soybean futures opened the overnight session strong but have since faded after November futures failed to breach Wednesday’s high just above $13.32. The market remains in a strong uptrend that’s kept bulls within striking distance of the 2.5-year high of $12.3525 posted Sept. 11. But the market may face sideways consolidation over the near term. Downside levels to watch include the 10-day SMA ($13.14) and Monday’s one-week low ($12.92).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose almost 1.75 cents Wednesday to just over $12.6175. Wednesday’s average was 58.75 cents under November futures, widening slightly from 58.5 cents a week ago.
December soymeal rose $4.60 to $370.20 per ton after edging up 20 cents Wednesday to $365.60, the highest close for a most-active contract since June 2024. December soy oil fell 84 points to 68.83 cents per pound.
Soybeans failed to sustain a strong overnight open as the market increasingly faces corrective profit-taking pressures with speculative funds holding a near-record net-long futures position. Reports of strong yields from early harvest have tempered bullish enthusiasm, but hopes for positive results from the expected Sept. 24 meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are keeping sellers at bay.
The market also faces contracting signals from a continued rally in soymeal, which hit a fresh 27-month high overnight, and soy oil, which is under pressure with diesel futures down sharply.
Today’s export sales report should again feature China as a top buyer. Net 2026-27 U.S. soybean sales for the week that ended Sept. 10 may range from 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT (33.1 million to 88.2 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey.
A week ago, USDA reported net new-crop sales for the week that ended Sept. 3 at 2.64 MMT, up 35% from the previous week. For 2026-27 to date, sales commitments now total 695.5 million bushels, roughly double the total over the same period last year, when China was out of the U.S. market.
China continues to make progress toward a 25-MMT annual target touted by the White House. As of Sept. 3, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery totaled 8.98 MMT (330 million bushels). That represents 36% of the 25 MMT full-year target the White House has said Beijing had committed to annually through 2028.
Wheat lower with rain relief heading for Plains
December soft red winter wheat fell 13 cents to $7.1775 after adding 2.25 cents Wednesday to $7.3075, the contract’s second straight daily advance after ending at a three-week closing low Monday. Futures are still down almost 10% from a 3.5-year intraday high at $7.95 posted Sept. 2.
December hard red winter wheat fell 11.25 cents to $7.8825 after gaining 3.25 cents Wednesday to $7.9950. Futures are still down from a three-year intraday high at $8.5825 reached Sept. 2 and below the 10- and 20-day SMAs (around $8.0825 and $8.05, respectively). December spring wheat fell 5 cents to $7.51.
Wheat futures extended declines overnight even as Russia and Ukraine continued attacks on each others’ energy infrastructure. Also, pressure may be resulting from forecasts calling for rains across much of Kansas that could help alleviate dry conditions with winter wheat planting underway.
Black Sea hostilities have resulted in sharp declines in grain exports out of Russia and Ukraine and may eventually boost global demand for U.S. wheat, but shipments continue to lag sharply below last year’s levels. Net weekly U.S. wheat export sales may range from 150,000 MT to 500,000 MT (9.2 million to 18.4 million bushels).
A week ago, USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales at a marketing-year low of 194,200 MT, down 38% from the previous week and down 43% from the average for the previous four weeks. For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 322.4 million bushels, down 31% from the same period in 2025-26.
Elsewhere, Statistics Canada, in its first official estimate for the 2026-27 season, estimated the country’s all-wheat production at 36.1 MMT (1.33 billion bushels), down 11% from 40.6 MMT in 2025 and below the average 36.7 MMT trade estimate. Canola production was pegged at 22.1 MMT, down from 22.23 MMT last year.