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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Stocks-to-use ratios for corn and soybeans in 2027 are trending lower amid strong demand and global weather woes. That makes USDA’s next Supply and Demand report on Sept. 11 of “utmost importance” to grain markets, with numbers that will likely set the tone for the rest of 2026, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm said. Farmers, she added, should have a firm grip on the numbers and be ready to capture opportunities and minimize price risks. Read more in Blohm’s latest Ag Marketing IQ post.
Weather outlooks remain generally crop-friendly for most of the Midwest for the rest of August and first week of September. Nebraska, Iowa and southern Minnesota may see rains totaling 0.1 to 0.5 inch by Sunday, while the eastern region looks dry, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Extended forecasts retain warmth while expanding moisture prospects for most of the region.
Corn under corrective pressure in wake of steep rally
December corn futures fell 1.25 cents to $5.1425 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 7 cents Monday to $5.1550, the contract’s fourth straight daily advance and the highest close for a December contract since July 2023. Still, futures finished almost 9 cents below the day’s high. September corn fell 1.25 cents to $4.9025.
Corn’s bullish technical momentum lost some steam overnight as the market failed to sustain initial gains and resumed Monday’s late pullback from three-year highs. December futures face resistance around $5.25, just above Monday’s high. A soft close today could foster ideas the market could be close to a near-term top. Downside levels to watch include the 1.25-cent chart gap created by the strong open on Sunday night ($5.09 to $5.1025).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 7.5 cents Monday to just over $4.6250 , a 16-month high. Monday’s average was about 29 cents below September futures, widening slightly from 28.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures came under corrective selling and profit-taking pressure overnight, with sharp losses in wheat and crude oil further encouraging sellers. Oil prices dropped over 3% to one-week lows as traders saw the just-announced U.S. sanctions campaign against Iran presenting less risk to Middle East supplies than military escalation.
December corn is still up over 12% from August lows in the wake of the trade’s sharp downsizing of expectations for the fall harvest, fueled largely by Pro Farmer’s crop tour last week. Pro Farmer estimated the 2026 corn crop would yield an average of 173.2 bushels per acre — 7.5 bushels below USDA’s 180.7 bpa projection and, if realized, the lowest since 2020.
Analysts are widely skeptical the yield will ultimately come in that low, but USDA could still further trim its estimate in its Sept. 11 Crop Production report. A decline of even a few bushels could significantly tighten the U.S. balance sheet in 2027, especially if export demand remains strong. In its Supply and Demand report earlier this month, USDA predicted a 15% drop in U.S. ending stocks in 2027, to 1.65 billion bushels.
The crop tour “highlighted some significant problems with this year’s corn crop, notably in the areas hit with some of the most extreme heat during the heart of pollination,” said StoneX analyst Mike Castle in a report. However, “it’s important to keep these numbers in context. The factor underpinning this entire dynamic … is the ongoing strength on the demand side of the balance sheet.”
Whether speculators will continue piling onto the long side of the market over the next few weeks is an open question. At the start of last week, managed money funds held their largest net-long in corn futures since late May and likely added to that position the past week. Funds bought an estimated 17,000 corn futures contracts Monday, bringing net buying since Aug. 12, when USDA released its Crop Production report, to a total of 169,000 contracts, the equivalent of 845 million bushels.
This week’s strength will likely be met with farmer sales, and traders will be watching charts for signs of a near-term top.
Forecasts remain warm while also hiking rainfalls odds for much of the Midwest. The latest NWS six- to-10-day outlook, which covers Aug. 30 to Sept. 3, shows above-normal temperatures for the entire region while expanding above-normal precipitation odds to cover all but the southern Corn Belt.
USDA’s weekly corn condition ratings deteriorated more than expected, with the closely followed good-to-excellent reading falling for the fifth time in the past six weeks.
USDA reported 57% of the crop in 18 top corn states in either “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, down from 60% a week earlier and down from 71% a year ago. (The “excellent” number rose to 14% from 13%, but “good” fell 4 percentage points to 43%.) Analysts, on average, expected a good-to-excellent number closer to 59%. An additional 26% of the crop was rated “fair,” while the combined “poor” and “very poor” number rose to 17% from 15%.
Iowa’s good-to-excellent reading was unchanged at 78%, but Illinois slipped to 58% from 59%. Nebraska slumped to 55% good-to-excellent from 59%, and its poor-to-very-poor reading rose to 17% from 16%. South Dakota’s good-to-excellent rating fell to 42% from 44%, while its poor-to-very-poor figure rose to 29% from 28%.
USDA also said 6% of the crop was “mature,” even with the five-year average, while 45% of the crop was dented, up from 29% a week earlier and above the 41% five-year average.
U.S. corn shipments fell sharply last week, based on USDA’s weekly inspections report, but exports remain on a record track as the 2025-26 marketing year comes to an end.
USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ending Aug. 20 at 1.296 million metric tons (51 million bushels), down 33% from the previous week and the lowest weekly total since late January. Mexico was the top destination at 387,748 metric tons (MT).
For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments total 3.239 billion bushels, up almost 26% from the same period in 2024-25 and 95.3% of USDA’s full-year export target, a record 3.4 billion bushels.
Corn futures soared above $5 last week as crop tour images of flooded fields, stunted stalks and smallish ears swirled across social media. Now that the crop tour is over, what next? The market may have reached “actionable” levels for corn prices, said Blue Line Futures’ Jason Gehler. “You have to feed a bull every day. I find it hard not to reward this rally.”
Gehler and other experts offer a few action items for farmers in Farm Futures’ weekly tipsheet.
Soybeans under pressure from favorable weather
November soybeans fell 4.75 cents to $12.1950 late overnight after tumbling 15.25 cents Monday to $12.2425, down from a four-week intraday high of $12.4450 posted last Thursday. September soybeans fell 3.5 cents to $12.1250.
Soybean technicals deteriorated overnight as November futures retreated further from last week’s four-week intraday high at $12.4450. The 10-day simple moving average just under $12.15 stands as a near-term downside support level to watch, followed by the 20-day SMA around $11.98. Sideways-lower price action could be ahead. Upside levels to watch include the $12.50 area and a 2½-year high at $12.5650 posted July 24.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 12.5 cents Monday to just over $11.8925, down from a four-week high. Monday’s average was about 28.25 cents below September futures, widening from 26.75 cents a week earlier.
December soymeal fell 80 cents to $327.80 per ton after gaining another $2.80 Monday to end at the contract’s highest level in over four weeks. December soy oil fell 111 points to 66.20 cents per pound after earlier dropping to the lowest level since July 6.
Soybeans took continued pressure overnight amid expectations for a record U.S. crop, with slumping crude oil prices adding to the weak tone. A sharply declining soy oil market is emerging as another troublesome development for speculative bulls, who hold a sizable net long in soybeans and could be compelled to pare that back if charts continue to erode.
Pressure stemmed in part from Pro Farmer’s U.S. soybean yield estimate at 53.3 bpa, which surpassed USDA’s 52.7 bpa forecast and would be a record. The firm also pegged the 2026 soybean harvest at a record 4.572 billion bushels, 53 million bushels above USDA’s figure.
Midwest weather remains generally bearish, with the abundant rains earlier this month combined with warm temperatures the rest of the month expected to fuel pod-filling and help the crop finish strong. Price downside may be limited by strong demand signals, including China’s buying spree in U.S. soybeans over the past month.
Weekly USDA soybean condition ratings also came out weaker than expected, clashing with hopes that widespread Midwest rains earlier this month would have provided more of a boost.
USDA said the soybean crop’s overall good-to-excellent reading dropped to 60% from 61% a week earlier (“excellent” held steady at 12%, while “good” dropped one percentage point to 48%). Analysts expected the good-to-excellent reading to be unchanged. An additional 28% of the crop was rated fair, while poor-to-very-poor rose to 12% from 10%.
Iowa’s good-to-excellent rating eased to 77% from 78%, but Illinois and Indiana both held unchanged at 59% and 61%, respectively. South Dakota’s good-to-excellent rating posted another decline, falling to 46% from 49%, while its poor-to-very-poor reading rose to 24% from 22%. Nebraska’s good-to-excellent number improved to 64% from 63%, but its poor-to-very-poor figure rose to 12% from 10%.
USDA also said 6% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves as of Sunday, slightly ahead of the 4% average for that date over the past five years. About 91% of the crop was setting pods, up from 85% a week earlier and ahead of the 88% five-year average.
U.S. soybean export shipments rose sharply last week despite China’s absence as a destination, based on USDA’s weekly inspections update. Soybeans inspected for export during the week ending Aug. 20 totaled 420,895 MT (15.5 million bushels) up 43% from the previous week and a six-week high. Egypt was the top destination at 116,966 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, soybean shipments total 1.487 billion bushels, down 18% from the same period in 2024-25 but on track to surpass USDA’s full-year export target of 1.52 billion bushels.
Wheat lower after poor performance to start week
December soft red winter wheat fell 9.75 cents to $6.8975 after edging up 0.25 cent Monday to $6.9950, fading from an early rally to a four-week intraday high at $7.15.
December hard red winer wheat fell 14.75 cents to $7.5250 after erasing an early climb to a four-week intraday high at $7.8625 Monday and ending with a loss of 5.25 cents. December spring wheat fell 9.75 cents to $7.1150 after dropping 3.25 cents Monday.
Wheat futures led the grain complex lower overnight as the market extended Monday’s weak chart performance. Rumors of a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine to dial back hostilities in the Black Sea also weighed on prices, despite reports Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is “not ready” to halt attacks on vessels carrying agricultural products, Reuters reported. Ukraine earlier this month had offered a deal with Moscow under which attacks on grain-carrying vessels would stop, but Russia had dismissed the idea, Reuters reported.
Continued Black Sea restrictions could eventually result in more wheat business for the U.S. USDA’s weekly export sales report Thursday showed a sharp jump in wheat purchases, raising hopes demand may be picking up after a slow start to the 2026-27 marketing year.
Monday’s export inspection report, however, showed a sharp drop in wheat shipments. U.S. wheat inspected for export during the week ending Aug. 20 totaled 420,895 MT (18.1 million bushels), down 17% from the prior week but up 6.9% from the same week in 2025. The Philippines was the largest destination at 117,217 MT.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat shipments now total 159.3 million bushels, down 26% from the same period a year earlier.
USDA’s weekly condition update showed a slight decline in spring wheat, as expected, while harvest of the crop passed the halfway point.
USDA reported 51% of the spring wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, down from 52% a week earlier but up from 49% a year earlier. The number met expectations. Acreage rated poor-to-very-poor rose to 14% from 12%. The good-to-excellent reading for North Dakota, the top spring wheat producer, slipped to 39% from 42%.
The spring wheat harvest continued to run ahead of historical averages. USDA said the harvest was 62% complete as of Sunday, up from 41% a week earlier and ahead of the 52% five-year historical average.