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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Archer-Daniels-Midland raised its 2026 profit outlook for a second time, citing a “constructive” biofuels environment and expectations China will continue buying U.S. soybeans. Biofuels are widely seen as a key emerging market for U.S. ag companies and farmers. “We expect increased production to continue throughout the biofuels industry,” the CEO of Andersons Inc., another grain company, said this week.
The central and eastern Corn Belt should receive widespread rain coverage the rest of the week. Totals for Illinois, Missouri and eastern Iowa may range from 0.75 inch to as much as 2 inches by Monday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Nebraska and the Dakotas look mostly dry. Extended forecasts are warm through mid-August but also show heightened rainfall odds.
Corn pressed by bearish weather for most of Midwest
December corn futures fell 6.25 cents to $4.5925 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding 7 cents Tuesday to $4.6550, the contract’s fourth decline in the past five days. September corn fell 6.25 cents to $4.36.
Corn bulls were disappointed Tuesday as Monday’s seeming reversal rally failed to generate follow-through buying, sending December futures back to the lower end of the range that’s held since mid-July. December futures closed below the 200-day simple moving average, about $4.68, for the second time in three days, and weakness overnight has December futures pressing key support at the 50-day SMA ($4.5850). A push under that level could have bears targeting $4.50.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell nearly 7.25 cents Tuesday to just above $4.1250. Tuesday’s average was about 29.75 cents below September futures, widening slightly from 30.25 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended Tuesday’s losses overnight amid bearishly viewed Midwest weather, with private consultant estimates for strong yields adding further pressure. This week’s sharp losses in crude oil are another source of pressure as hopes grow for a peace deal in the Middle East. September WTI crude oil plunged nearly 6% Tuesday before rebounding modestly overnight following reports Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea.
Weather outlooks continue to favor the bears, with most of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri expected to receive rain coverage through the weekend. Little to no rain is forecast for Nebraska and the Dakotas during that period. But extended forecasts show heat starting to recede next week and precipitation odds improving.
Updated NWS 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover August 10-18, both have near-normal temperatures expanding from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, along with above-normal precipitation probabilities for most of the Corn Belt.
Despite persistent dryness in the western Midwest and deteriorating crop ratings, the U.S. still holds potential to produce a bigger corn harvest than USDA forecasts, based on estimates from the brokerage StoneX.
StoneX on Tuesday said it estimated 2026 corn production at 16.16 billion bushels and an average nationwide yield at 184.8 bushels per acre. By contrast, USDA projects production at 16 billion bushels and the average yield at 183 bpa.
The firm also estimated this year’s U.S. soybean harvest at 4.47 billion bushels on an average yield of 53 bpa, matching USDA’s current yield figure but coming in slightly under the agency’s production number of 4.475 billion bushels. USDA will update its forecasts in its August 12 Crop Production report.
“There are certainly problem areas in the Corn Belt,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a report Tuesday. However, the eastern Belt “continues to gradually improve and the central Belt hangs on thanks to just-in-time rains.”
In addition to bearish weather, corn futures also face technical pressure as charts appear to be breaking down. Speculators sold actively across the grain complex Tuesday, with managed funds recording net sales of about 20,000 corn futures contracts, the equivalent of about 100 million bushels. Still, the funds “are still uncomfortably long given the improving crop outlook, John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper said in a note.
Strong demand from ethanol makers and exporters could help stem price downside. Later today, the Energy Information Administration will report weekly ethanol production data. A week ago, EIA said production averaged 1.133 million barrels a day during the week ended July 24, up 3.6% from the previous week and the highest since early January. Corn consumption by the ethanol industry still trails the pace needed to reach USDA’s full-year target of 5.55 billion bushels.
Soybean crop receiving timely August rains
November soybeans fell 9.75 cents to $11.68 late overnight after earlier dropping to $11.6750, the contract’s lowest intraday price since July 6. September beans fell 9 cents to $11.4975.
Soybean technicals crumbled further overnight, with November futures heading for the contract’s fifth loss in the last six days and retreating from the 2 ½-year highs posted in late July. November futures overnight pushed under critical support around the 50-day SMA ($11.7550) and could be heading for the contract’s first close under the 100-day SMA ($11.70) since July 2. Further declines could have bears targeting trendline support around $11.40 drawn from January lows.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 13.75 cents Tuesday to just over $11.3350. Tuesday’s average was about 21.5 cents below August futures, narrowing from 34 cents a week earlier.
December soymeal fell $2.80 to $315.60 per ton after earlier sinking to a three-week intraday low. December soyoil fell 17 points to 67.36 cents per pound after dropping 62 points Tuesday, the contract’s seventh decline in the past eight days.
Soybeans appear poised to extend price downside as bearish weather and eroding charts prompt funds to pare back still-sizable bullish bets in futures. This week’s Midwest rains are particularly timely with the crop moving into its critical pod-setting and pod-filling phase. USDA ratings have held up better than corn, suggesting the crop can reach or exceed an average U.S. yield near USDA’s current trendline forecast of 53 bpa.
The StoneX yield estimate, at 53 bpa, matches the USDA, “but given the current extended forecast, we could see that number grow over the coming months,” Zanker wrote.
Weather for now is overshadowing the recent acceleration in Chinese purchases of U.S. beans.
Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 132,000 MT (4.9 million bushels) for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year. Tuesday’s announcement followed three other so-called USDA flash sales to China since July 27 and brought total purchases over that period 884,000 MT (USDA also reported flash sales totaling over 514,000 MT to “unknown destinations”).
Those purchases likely will add to total sales already recorded for China in 2026-27. Based on last week’s USDA export report, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery so far total 2.78 MMT (102 million bushels) as of July 23. China’s recent purchases have bolstered confidence the country is making progress toward meeting a 25-MMT full-year purchase target touted by the White House.
Wheat burdened by spillover weakness in corn, oil
September SRW wheat rose 0.75 cent to $6.3925 after sinking 12.5 cents Tuesday to $6.3850, the contract’s lowest settlement since July 13. Futures have dropped 72 cents from a 26-month intraday high posted at $7.1125 July 24.
September HRW wheat rose 1 cent to $7.08 after dropping 10.25 cents Tuesday to $7.07, the contract’s lowest close since July 14. HRW technicals took a hit after September futures closed below the 20-day SMA (about $7.1250) for the first time since June 30. Futures have tumbled 9% from a three-year intraday high at $7.7750 on July 24.
September spring wheat fell 3 cents to $6.8150 after losing 10.5 cents Tuesday and ending near a three-week low.
Wheat futures have attempted to hold up this week but appear to be succumbing to spillover pressure from corn and soybeans as well as sharp declines in crude oil. Prices aren’t far from multi-year highs posted just a couple of weeks ago but chart patterns continue to weaken, which could prompt funds to slash a net long in HRW futures. Weak export demand is overshadowing concern over Russia-Ukraine hostilities disrupting grain shipping in the Black Sea.
Spring wheat ratings came out better than expected for the second week in a row, suggesting the crop is holding up reasonably well despite recent heat that’s gripped the prime Northern Plains.
Late Monday, USDA reported 55% of the spring wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, up from 53% from a week earlier and up from 49% a year earlier. Analysts expected a drop to about 52%. Acreage rated poor-to-very-poor shrank to 12% from 15%.
Also, the spring wheat harvest was 5% complete as of Sunday, USDA said, up from 2% a week earlier but behind the 8% five-year historical average. The winter wheat crop was 86% harvested, up from 81% a week earlier and even with the five-year average.