Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
In farmland auctions this year, investors have been outbidding farmers more than any time in recent memory, similar to patterns seen in previous times of ag economy stress, according to real estate broker Max Steffes. Why is this happening? There are several fairly simple reasons, some with a modern, tech-driven twist, Steffes says.
Corn ratings overshadowed by favorable weather
July corn futures fell 0.75 cent to $4.4325 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding another 2.75 cents Monday to $4.44, the contract’s fourth decline in the past five days and its lowest close since Feb. 9. December corn fell 1.75 cents to $4.7075 after earlier dropping to $4.6850, the contract’s lowest intraday price since March 5.
Corn technicals continued to sag overnight with July and December futures tracking for the contracts’ third consecutive daily declines as chart breakdowns fueled fund selling. July futures held above Monday’s low at $4.40, but December futures pushed slightly below the April lows, suggesting the new-crop contract may be on the verge of another leg lower. Downside levels to watch include the March low at $4.67 and the February low around $4.53.
December futures have tumbled over 36 cents, or 7.2%, from a 2 ½-year high at $5.0650 posted May 13.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose less than 0.25 cent Monday to just over $4.0750, near a six-week low hit Friday. Monday’s average was about 36.25 cents below July futures, narrowing from 39.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended Monday’s losses overnight as the initially supportive effect of weaker-than-expected crop ratings was overshadowed by bearish Midwest weather and a strong start for this year’s crop. Planting is effectively complete, and warm temperatures across the Midwest during the first half of June should enhance crop development, while much-needed rains are expected this week in the dry western Corn Belt. The extended forecast suggests improving rain chances.
Crude oil prices fell overnight, reversing some of Monday’s rally, after President Trump said peace talks with Iran were ongoing. July WTI crude futures fell over 1% to $91.06 per barrel after jumping 5.5% Monday. WTI futures tumbled 17% in May.
Elevated oil prices may remain a supportive background factor for grain markets, but the Middle East conflict’s impact on corn and soybeans is waning as spring weather in the U.S. becomes the primary focus. War premium has faded and speculators are quickly scaling back bullish bets. Managed money funds sold about 65,000 corn futures contracts over the past week, the equivalent of 325 million bushels, based on a StoneX estimate. But funds still retain a historically large net long and charts have broken down, leaving the market susceptible to further downside.
Corn and soybeans are “vulnerable to slipping into seasonal patterns,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note. “Headlines from the war are losing their impact on the grain and oilseeds amid the ongoing stalemate. It’s June now, and crop condition scores for this year’s corn and soybean crops will increasingly be a factor.”
USDA’s initial crop ratings of the season for corn fell short of expectations. However, market impact is being limited by a mostly favorable weather outlook for the first half of June, with warm temperatures speeding crop development and extended forecasts boosting rain prospects.
In its weekly Crop Progress update released Monday afternoon, USDA rated 67% of the crop in 18 top U.S. corn states either “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, lower than the 69% reported a year ago and below the 70% analysts were expecting on average. Iowa’s crop was rated 82% good-to-excellent, while ratings for eastern Corn Belt states lagged, reflecting heavy spring rains that slowed fieldwork. Good-to-excellent ratings for Indiana and Ohio were 61% and 46%, respectively.
Planting progress also came out slightly under trade expectations but still showed the crop mostly in the ground and development slightly ahead of average.
USDA reported 93% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 31, up from 86% a week earlier and above the 92% average for the past five years. Iowa was 97% planted. All other major Corn Belt states were at least 91% seeded, with the exception of Indiana (85%) and Ohio (73%). About 76% of the corn crop had emerged, up from 60% a week earlier and ahead of the 74% five-year average.
U.S. corn shipments extended a rebound from a brief mid-May dip, based on USDA’s inspections report Monday. USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended May 28 at 1.728 million metric tons (68 million bushels), up 7.7% from the previous week and up 5.2% from the same week a year earlier, USDA said. Japan was the top destination at 592,231 metric tons.
For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 2.439 billion bushels, up 27% from the same period in 2024-25 and 74% of USDA’s full-year export target, a record 3.3 billion bushels.
Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil trimmed its estimate for the country’s 2026 second corn harvest by 100,000 MT to 106 MMT. The firm’s estimate for Brazil’s total corn production now stands at 136.8 MMT (5.39 billion bushels), down 2.1% from last year.
India recently surpassed China as the world's most populous nation, and its expanding economy needs to eat. Ag products are among the centerpieces of India’s commitment to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. goods over the next five years, according to the White House. Five major U.S. ag commodities could benefit, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says.
Soybeans crop ratings slightly under expectations
July soybeans fell 2.5 cents to $11.7825 overnight after earlier dropping to $11.7475, the contract’s lowest intraday price since May 15. November soybeans fell 1.75 cents to $11.87 after dropping 1.25 cents Monday.
Soybean technicals deteriorated further overnight in the wake of Monday’s poor performance, with July and November futures poised for three consecutive daily declines. Further weakness could lead to a test of the May low in July futures at $11.7225 and the 100-day simple moving average, currently $11.6650.
November futures are holding up slightly better as prices consolidate around the middle of the past month’s 49-cent range. But a soft close today could have bears aiming for last week’s low at $11.75 and the 50-day SMA (around $11.70).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 3.5 cents Monday to just under $11.2150, a two-week low. Monday’s average was about 59.25 cents below July futures, narrowing from 61.75 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal fell 50 cents to $26.00 per ton after dropping $3.30 Monday to end at a three-week low. July soyoil fell 41 points to 78.68 cents per pound after climbing 1.8% Monday to 79.09 cents, the fifth straight daily gain and the highest close for a most-active contract since June 2022. Soyoil futures have rallied 62% this year.
Soybean futures slumped overnight on spillover pressure from Monday’s declines as well as weakness in crude oil prices, which have helped pull soyoil futures down slightly but still near four-year highs. Lower-than-expected crop ratings are being brushed off as traders focus on the mostly-planted crop and favorable growing conditions so far this month.
USDA’s initial soybean condition ratings of the season also fell short of expectations. The U.S. crop’s combined good-to-excellent rating came in at 66%, below 67% reported a year ago. Analysts expected a number closer to 67% to 68%.
Similar to corn, a few top producers like Iowa (79% good-to-excellent) posted strong readings, but the overall average was pulled down by eastern states, such as Indiana (59%) and Ohio (46%).
Soybean planting in 18 top states advanced to 87% complete as of Sunday, up from 79% a week earlier and ahead of the 80% five-year average, USDA reported. A year earlier, the crop was 83% planted. Ohio lagged at 68% planted but most other key states were above their five-year averages. About 65% of the crop had emerged, up from 49% a week earlier and the 57% five-year average.
U.S. soybean shipments dropped last week despite additional supply moving to China. Soybeans inspected for expected during the week ended May 28 totaled 494,286 MT (18.2 million bushels), down 16% from the previous week but up 64% from the same week a year earlier. China was again the top destination at 206,771 MT. For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 1.31 billion bushels, down 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and 86% of USDA’s full-year export target of 1.53 billion bushels, a 13-year low.
Elsewhere, StoneX Brazil hiked its estimate for the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop by 200,000 MT, or 0.1% to 181.8 MMT (6.68 billion bushels).
Wheat crop ratings little changed near historic lows
July SRW wheat fell 4 cents to $6.0475 after earlier touching $6.0225, the contract’s lowest intraday price since April 21. Futures are tracking for the eighth lower close in the past nine days.
July HRW wheat fell 7.5 cents to $6.3950 after earlier sinking to $6.3750, the contract’s lowest intraday price since April 17. Futures have tumbled over $1.10, or 15% from a two-year intraday high at $7.50 on May 13. July spring wheat futures fell 3.25 cents to $6.4875 after sinking to a seven-week low Monday.
Wheat technicals remain in free-fall with July SRW futures poised for a third-straight close below the 50-day SMA (about $6.23), which could lead to a test of the $6 area. July HRW futures are also tracking for a third straight close below the 50-day SMA ($6.6225) but remain above the 100-day SMA ($6.2050) and the April low at $5.9875.
Wheat futures followed corn and soybeans lower overnight and otherwise remain burdened by lackluster U.S. exports and beliefs drought-driven losses for the HRW crop have been factored in. U.S. wheat continues to trade at uncompetitive values on global markets. Record-low crop ratings underscore drought impact in top HRW states but also show the SRW crop faring much better, thanks to ample rains in the eastern Midwest.
Weekly wheat crop ratings were little changed and near historic lows, contrary to expectations recent rainfall in the Southern Plains may have brought modest improvement. The initial winter wheat harvest figure came out slightly ahead of expectations.
USDA reported 26% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, matching the record low recorded a week earlier and down from 52% a year ago. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” was unchanged at 44%.
In Kansas, the top wheat producer, the good-to-excellent rating held at 15%, while poor-to-very-poor was unchanged at 55%. By contrast, good-to-excellent ratings for Illinois and Ohio, two of the top SRW states, held at 70% and 68%, respectively.
USDA also said the winter wheat crop was 5% harvested as of Sunday, up from 3% a year earlier and above the five-year average, also 3%. The spring wheat crop advanced to 94% planted from 86% a week earlier and ahead of the 89% five-year average.
U.S. wheat shipments rose slightly in the last full week of the 2025-26 marketing year but remain short of USDA’s full-year export target.
USDA reported wheat inspections for the week ended May 28 at 402,346 MT (14.8 million bushels), up 5.9% from the prior week but down 27% from the same week in 2025. Mexico was the top destination at 95,502 MT. For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 877.8 million bushels, up 9.3% from the same period a year earlier but 96.4% of USDA’s full-year target of 910 million bushels.
Western Corn Belt in line for widespread rains
Widespread rains will sweep across the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt the rest of this week, bringing 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches for Nebraska, the Dakotas and western Kansas, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. The western Belt may receive 0.1 inch to 0.5 inch.
Extended forecasts continue to call for a warm first half of June along with elevated rainfall prospects. The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers June 7-11, predicts for above-normal temperatures from the Northern Plains through the entire Corn Belt, while precipitation probabilities remain above normal for most of the region.
The 8-to-14-day outlook also calls for above-normal temperatures across the central U.S., with near-normal precipitation for most of the Midwest.