Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening have brought some relief from soaring fuel prices, but farmers still face tricky questions, including: When will China step up buying of U.S. grain? AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick thinks it’s just a matter of time. “China will come in and buy,” McCormick says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video. “I just think they're biding their time to try to get the best deal possible.”
Corn sees corrective bounce after three-day slide
July corn futures rose 2 cents to $4.1175 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 1.75 cents Tuesday to $4.0975, the contract’s third straight daily decline and a lifetime-low close. December corn rose 2 cents to $4.3925 after easing 2.25 cents Tuesday to $4.3725, also a lifetime-low close.
Corn technicals retain a neutral-bearish tone despite modest overnight strength, with both July and December futures dropping back into the lower end of the past two weeks’ range and within 5 cents or so of contract lows hit June 15. December futures face near-term resistance around the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4.1550 and last week’s high at $4.22. Last week’s contract lows ($4.0625 in July futures, $4.3425 in December) remain key downside support.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell almost 1 cent Tuesday to about $3.80. Tuesday’s average was about 29.75 cents below July futures, compared to 30.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures generated some light corrective buying and short covering overnight following three days of losses, with prices holding to narrow ranges as traders prepared for USDA’s June 30 Acreage report. Midwest weather remains largely bearish, with the dry western Corn Belt expected to receive needed rainfall this week and a late-June warmup seen extending into early June.
Funds continued to expand a net short position in corn this week but may be loath to press the downside much with USDA’s Acreage report expected to show a drop in corn plantings. How much of a decline, if any, USDA may reveal next week, is a matter of debate. Some estimates making the rounds have corn plantings shrinking 1 million to 3 million acres from USDA’s March forecast.
Some analysts expect a relatively modest decline in corn acres. AgMarket.Net estimated corn plantings at 94.9 million acres, which would be down from 95.3 million acres estimated in USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report. The decline reflects a surge in fertilizer prices stemming from the U.S.-Iran war, supply challenges and excessive moisture across parts of the U.S.
However, stronger prices during the spring likely kept farmers from diverting a more significant number of acres away from corn, AgMarket.Net said in a statement today.
“We recognize there has been a reduction (in corn acres), especially in certain regions,” AgMarket.Net co-founder and CEO Matt Bennett said in the statement. At the same time, December corn’s May rally to about $5.06 “likely kept some acres in corn,” he said.
Soybean plantings may increase to 85.3 million acres from 84.7 million acres in USDA’s March forecast, AgMarket.Net estimated.
Record export demand may stem further near-term downside in corn. Early Tuesday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 100,000 metric tons (3.94 million bushels) to Mexico. Of the total, 30,000 MT is for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year and the remainder for 2026-27.
For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments total 2.641 billion bushels, up 25% from the same period in 2024-25 and 79% of USDA’s full-year export target, a record 3.325 billion bushels.
USDA’s recently released crop cost-of-production forecasts for 2027 carried some good news: fertilizer costs are expected to ease a bit. But other costs are seen increasing, which may keep corn and soybean margins deep into the red another year. But corn may have an edge as red ink “could be ready to ease just a little,” Bryce Knorr says in his latest Ag Marketing IQ column.
Soybean upside limited by expected acres boost
July soybeans rose 1.5 cents to $11.1850 overnight after adding 1.25 cents Tuesday to $11.17 in a modest bounce from a one-week low. November soybeans rose 1.75 cents to $11.4350 after edging up 0.25 cent Tuesday to $11.4175, around the middle of the past two weeks’ range.
Soybean technicals extended sideways consolidation in narrow-range trading overnight, with November futures holding near-term support at the 10-day SMA ($11.4050) but pulling back from the 100-day SMA ($11.49). Upside targets for bulls include the 20-day SMA ($11.5250) and last week’s high ($11.5825).
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose 1.75 cents Tuesday to about $10.66. Tuesday’s average was about 51 cents below July futures, narrowing from 52.75 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal rose $3.70 to $306.60 per ton after climbing 1% Tuesday in a rebound from a five-month closing low Monday. July soyoil fell 48 points to 70.11 cents per pound after slipping 56 points Tuesday for the contract’s fourth drop in the past five days.
Soybean futures climbed overnight despite a continued slump in crude oil prices, which dropped to 3 ½-month lows amid signs of accelerating tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Lackluster crop ratings and hopes for fresh Chinese buying continue to underpin soybean prices, but upside remains limited by generally favorable growing conditions across the Midwest.
Expectations USDA will upwardly revise its soybean plantings figure are also keeping buyers sidelined. AgMarket.Net’s soybean plantings estimate, 85.3 million acres, would mark a 5% increase from 2025 and suggests this year’s crop has record production potential if yields are near the 53 bushels per acre average in 2025.
“Soybean acres are liable to increase, especially as soybeans are a lower cost crop,” Bennett said in the statement, noting that soybean futures also rallied over the spring. “We saw a high of $12.14 for November soybeans. That’s some of the best prices for beans we’ve seen in the last couple of years.”
Late Monday, USDA reported 66% of the U.S. soybean crop in good-to-excellent rating as of Sunday, unchanged from a week earlier and equal to last year’s figure. Another 28% was rated fair and 6% poor-to-very-poor.
Wheat faces pressure from dollar rally
September SRW wheat rose 2.75 cents to $5.9925 after tumbling 10.5 cents Tuesday to $5.97, the contract’s third consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since June 12. The most-active contract is up from a four-month intraday low at $5.8225 hit June 15 but down from two-year high at $7.00 recorded in mid-May.
September HRW wheat rose 3.75 cents to $6.29 after plunging 14.75 cents Tuesday to $6.2525, the contract’s third straight daily drop and its lowest close since April 10. September spring wheat rose 2.5 cents to $6.20 after sinking 21 cents Tuesday to a four-month low.
Wheat futures rose overnight behind light corrective buying and short covering following three days of declines but remain under pressure from an accelerating winter harvest. Expected rainfall in dry areas of the Northern Plains is also adding pressure.
Concerns a strong U.S. dollar will crimp already soft exports are also burdening the market, with global importers favoring cheaper supplies from Russia and other top producers. Earlier today, the U.S. dollar index surged to its strongest level since May 2025.
The U.S. winter wheat harvest continued to race ahead of the average pace. As of Sunday, the winter wheat crop was 40% harvested, up from 25% a week earlier and above the 24% average for the past five years. USDA reported 26% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, down from 27% a week earlier and down from 49% a year ago. Wheat rated poor-to-very-poor rose to 46% from 45%.
U.S. wheat export sales are off to a slow start in the new 2026-27 marketing year. For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 183.4 million bushels, down 15% from the same period in 2025-26. For the full year, USDA projects exports will drop by the same percentage from 2025-26, to 775 million bushels.
Elsewhere, SovEcon cut its estimate for the 2026-27 Russian wheat harvest by 1.4 MMT, or 1.6%, to 88.9 MMT (3.27 billion bushels). The consultant’s updated figure is still higher than USDA’s current Russia forecast at 88 MMT.
Midwest heat wave in the works to open July
Potentially heavy rains are heading for parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt, with 2 inches to possibly over 3 inches expected for most of Missouri, plus the southern halves of Illinois and Indiana by Monday, based on a National Weather Service five-day outlook. Nebraska and the Dakotas could receive 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches during that period.
Extended forecasts suggest a warming trend starting the last few days of June may build into a heat wave across much of the Midwest in early July, pushing high temperatures near or above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Moisture prospects continue to be scaled back.
The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, covering June 29-July 3, calls for above-normal temperatures for the entire Corn Belt, with the greatest heat prospects centered over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Normal to below normal precipitation probabilities have expanded to cover most of the western and southern Corn Belt and the Southern Plains.
The 8-to-14-day outlook, covering July 1-7, also shows above-normal temperatures covering the Corn Belt and Plains, along with normal to below-normal rainfall.